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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • kateschneid kateschneid May 3, 2013 11:00 AM Flag

    What about the dividend?

    Has anyone heard anything or have any thoughts what's going to happen with the dividend? That's the only reason I hold reits. All my other reits have lowered their dividends at least a couple times. I've been assuming agnc would eventually too.

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    • You might try going into the preferreds vs. common shares....Right now, I like RSO-PB...and also ARR-PB / NRF-C&D ....They seem to be less volatile than the common mREITS, and have a fixed payout...ie. I have been expecting many of the mREIT common stocks to cut dividends by quite a bit...we'll see...but it sure can't hurt to focus on the preferreds...first to get paid & many are paying over 8%, with good, long duration dates and good 'yields-to-call'. RSO-B & NRF-C&D are in commercial paper (not agency backed residential paper)

      • 1 Reply to h5n1eric
      • Don't limit preferred to mREITs.
        There are others uch as PGX, PFF, PGF out there paying around 6% which doesn't have wild price swings for the last 3 years. All near their 52-week highs; however, things can change on a dime.

        mREIT dividends for AGNC at its peak was $1.40/share, cut to $1.25.
        I would not be surprised to see it go to $1.00/share.
        Anything lower than that will bring about crises management.
        Whose to blame - Bernanke or was it bound to happen?

        GLTA

    • Raybans, you obviously have no clue on how AGNC makes its money and how it operates. Unless you are willing to educate yourself, it will be better if you stay away from mREITs...
      The dividends are SAFE at least for 2013, Scott Kennedy at SeekingAlpha did the analysis.
      This quarter losses came from Book Value, not from dividends.
      Even a trainwrecked "company" like CIM, who cooked the books for years and lost millions and millions in book value, kept on paying dividends.
      I wouldn't worry about the dividend, but the BV instead.

      • 1 Reply to greatdeceivah
      • Kennedy did the analysis just before they announced the hit to BV, earnings, and the undistributed taxable income. I, for one, know exactly how AGNC makes its money, which I why I bailed at nearly the forever high after the fed announced its intervention.

        I also know that cheerleaders like you will continue to lead the cheering section until reality smacks you really hard. I can safely stay out until the divvy announcement for a near zero lost opportunity cost. if they announce another 1.25, I will be back in. anything less, and I will wait for the flying fur to settle. again.

    • didnt say the div would change, stressed not to project the loss onto div, reiterated recovery in q2 and strong rebounding seen in april / may so far

    • It would seem that it would be impossible for them not to lower the dividend significantly unless they think they can turn it around in a quarter. It has been my experience that trends like this usually go on for many quarters, not just a few, but not always. Most of the time when you get a warning shot like this it is not wise to ignore it. It has been my experience that there is more of a down side than there is an upside if one comes up with reasons to feel complacent that cause one to remain in a state of indecision. This may create temporary feelings of well being but they can be very temporary and followed by even greater feelings of distress and for good reasons.

      This is the second warning shot, not the first. Last quarter’s earnings were a concern as well. If you ignore this second one then probably no amount of news will be enough to get you to mitigate potential future losses and you will ride it out for better or worse. And if that is the case then reading message boards and daily news that is never acted upon isn’t helping rather it is only creating undo stress. It would probably be better in that case to just invest in mutual funds and thus pay a manager to feel the stress instead, hopefully someone who reacts to events as they occur for the sake of one's account.

      I have never been one to stand like a deer in the head lights of an oncoming car. Because of that sometimes I take loses that I would not have had to incur otherwise but I also rarely take the large losses like the ones people took in 2008. I was out of the market before that happened because I heeded the warning signs. However if I was holding AGNC long options I might react differently because in that case it might be fruitless at this point to do anything other than wait.

 
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