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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • vanderpool1959 vanderpool1959 May 10, 2013 5:17 PM Flag

    My stop Tripped @ $29.73

    I just got home to find this out. I will be working my day job for free a few weeks to make up for this. I also hold NLY its also starting to hurt. I need someone who is smart about this to help me out a little. I guess we all need that.

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    • I think you were OK getting stopped out. I know alot of ppl here are mREITs fans, but I sold all of mine and I disclose that I don't have any short positions. This is not some fat fingered plunge. I see all mREITs falling because of the fact that the interest in MBS are rising. It just seems to me that the price of MBS had gotten as high as it can go, and instituions are dumping them. As to how much the Feds can soak them all up, idk. I can only be sure that interest rates looks like it will be going up, and if you look at 10 year treasuries they had been going up too (it went as far down as 1.65% this year). Barring a market plunge, if the stock market continues higher, fixed income including MBS will be sold - that will be bad for leverage playes like mREITs.

      You have to undersatnd that AGNC had a lousy last quarter. Whether that is a one time thing remains to be seen. If MBS continues to tank, then you can be sure AGNC will have a bad 2nd quarter as well - that means you can be sure most mREITS will continue their fall.

      I don't really know how much more AGNC might fall, but I will wait out and keep a close eye. Until conditions improve in MBS, a threat of a divi cut is present and that can plunge this stock. Not to mention a long awaited market correction that has yet to materialize, but seem closer each day as this gravity-defying rally continues. Markets can go up forever. And this one is one of the longest recorded. You cannot tell me that it will stay up.

      Best of luck.

    • a fixed stop will #$%$ more often than not on stable stocks or reits as there will always be plunges, flushes and heavy fingers that will take them down 5 or 10% in seconds or minutes then later in the day often price will come back up halfway. also a rule of thumb is stop out of only half the position then watch it a few days to see if it comes back, often you can recoup the loss on the first half that way as the 2nd keeps moving on up, then buy the dips to get back to full position.

    • Put all of your money in MTGE. Don't use stops. I don't use stops.. if i am really that worried I sell HALF of a position or maybe 1/4.. all depends.. then if it goes down i just buy it back cheaper. if it goes up I sell above my cost basis for a profit. I'm long 21,500 shares of MTGE.

    • The bearish "inverted pennant formation" (on an upside down "flagpole") is a highly reliable technical indicator that foretold another big drop in price was coming for AGNC. You can read about pennants (both bullish and bearish) and look at the chart of AGNC at stockcharts dotcom. It is clear as can be... I hate candlesticks, recommend you use elder impulse (see "chart attributes" to view the pennant more clearly.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • There was a fairly significant drop in Agency RMBS Friday approaching the March lows. Some technical support points were broken.

      This is simply the first stage of the inevitable price adjustment in Agency RMBS necessitated by an end to QE. This Agency RMBS price action could cause book value for AGNC at the end of Q2 to remain unchanged or perhaps drop. However, interest rate spreads will increase nicely, laying the foundation for longer term profitability.

      Not all the price adjustment in AGNC which is likely to occur when the end of QE actually comes has yet taken place, so there's more downside to come. But since QE is not likely to actually end for a couple months, it will be a bumpy ride getting there.

    • I would not worry about your stop as all REITs are under pressure and AGNC will end up bellow your stop next week.

    • am6242@gmail.com am6242 May 10, 2013 5:28 PM Flag

      I watched it flash crash. By the time I placed my limit order for 4,000 shares it had gone up to 29.55 in seconds, then 29.65, in a few more seconds. I bought at 29.70, and in a few minutes it climbed back to 30.00. If you went to the bathroom you missed it. It was that quick.

      • 1 Reply to am6242
      • I put a limit order for 29.50 2 days ago (GTC) and though I might be able to buy after the dividend. I was taking care of a customer and heard a ring (symbolizing I bought the stock). Looked at the chart and sold out immidiately at 29.83 (2 mins later).

        Quick 250 buck profit, but it is scary out there right now. Put another limit order for 29x760 shares.

        Vanderpool- This stock should not represent more than 10% of your porfolio. That being said, as long as they dont cut the dividends it does not matter how low the stock trades on a daily basis. You are still making the same interest rate you made the day you bought in. Personally looking to make my first investment in this company but I am waiting till after the dividend (in a month or so) because the stock tends to drop more than the dividend amount and then I have to pay taxes on the dividend anyway, just doesnt make sense for me.

 
AGNC
18.62+0.10(+0.54%)Jul 2 4:00 PMEDT