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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • chuck37chuck chuck37chuck May 20, 2013 4:30 PM Flag

    My first prediction

    I've usually just been a cheerleader and not a Predictor. But after reading the following from Forbes just minutes ago: "AGNC Dividend Yield Pushes Above 17%" - I'm predicting that many will push the Buy button tomorrow morning

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • you may be correct. but, do you have any idea what will happen if they declare a reduced dividend in about three weeks.

      better to wait. no built in loss.

      • 4 Replies to mrwizard9090
      • I'm on the fence on this one. On one hand I seriously doubt a dividend cut because there is some money yet to be paid out. They also will have seen nearly all of Q2's internal numbers (around 5/6ths of it) before making the decision.

        There is what Quadruppel says below (misspelled intentionally - I'm a home brewer ;)

        It's going to be difficult to say what the market will react to, but here is a general thought:

        1) When the market has high expectations, reality has a higher chance of pushing the price downward
        2) When the market has low expectations, reality has a higher chance of pushing the price upward
        3) When expectations are neutral, anything goes

        I put AGNC in the top range of "low expectations". On a scale of 1 to 10, where 5 and 6 are neutral, I'd say AGNC is a 3 to 4, in terms of expectations. I'm not saying it's in the bottom 40%, mind you, I'm only giving you my gut feel on the dourness (which is to say, "mildly dour") of the market after the last quarter.

        With that in mind, a "meets expectations" on dividend OR quarterly will have a higher chance of pushing the price up than if expectations were neutral or high (where 10 is Apple in the middle of 2012).

        That's still no guarantee, just a guess as to the odds.


      • mrwizard I think you last quarter predicted the same thing. What exactly happened? Since you make the same prediction this quarter, why don't you share with us the reasoning? It's not that you are trying to drive down the price of the stock to see if you can layer in some cheap calls, that can't be the reason? lol

      • When they reduced the dividend from 1.40 to 1.25 the stock took off.


      • I don't have inside info. The Speculation flying around is that if there is a divy cut it will be very slight. I'm talking about speculation from the Message Boards. I realize you should NEVER make a trade based on the MB's. But there is a History from the past 3 years you can go on to some extent and that shows the divy from AGNC staying very stable while other REIT's divy's have flucuated wildly.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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