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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • oldschoolbuilder oldschoolbuilder Jun 10, 2013 1:58 PM Flag

    Buying now is like buying at around $24 as it goes ex-dividend in 2 weeks

    Even assuming a reduction in the annual dividend to about $4/sh the risk/reward here is reasonably favorable.

    These guys have a huge hedge book and are dynamic hedgers. If mortgages outperform Treasuries from here it's ok for BV as AGNC was 90+% hedged at quarter end (probably even more now). To assume further mortgage basis deterioration is to say other fixed income investors (banks, insurers, funds) are going to ignore the great spreads (they have to reinvest to earn a spread on their liabilities) available today despite the short end remaining at 0% for at least 2 years. It also ignores the fact that refis will dry up given where mortgage rates are currently, greatly reducing the supply of new mortgages while the Fed keeps buying tons of them. Also prepayment speeds will slow which means premium amortization will decline a bunch, which would boost prices of premium mortgages and help earnings.

    This is just a plain old panic. Strong stomach needed but things probably improve from here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

18.84+0.26(+1.40%)May 6 4:00 PMEDT