At or below 25.35 they are buying shares back. With this fact you can simply calculate the book value:
AGNC buy shares if the AGNC-shares are trading more than 5% below book value. So, 25.35 is 95% of book value.
book value = 25.35/0.95= 26.68
Maybe they would buy back shares if they could trend their BV over time, but apparently they are not certain what the BV will be two quarters from now. It could be $25 or it could be $20, who knows? So the MBS spreads have to narrow for them to have any confidence in a stable BV and then if there is a big discount, then they could buy back.shares. I would not be surprised later this year when tax loss selling occurs, that AGNC is trading below $20/share.
knh is a bit of a tinkerbell. Yesterday he lied about the dividend announcement. Today he lies about share buybacks. knh, have you read that management is planning to SELL an additional 10,000,000 preferred shares??? Why would a dimwit BOD sell 10M preferreds in order to raise capital, and then at the same time bl.o.w away any capital to buy back commons??? Don't make sense to any sane heads. If the stock doesn't even have problems meeting the divi payouts already...A desperate man, trying desperate attempts to pump up a desperate stock....I'm blown away by the sheer desperation when one makes a wrong way bet.
Are you speculating or do you actually know for a fact that they are buying back shares? If you are speculating it would be considerate to others if you are clear that you are because some people are making investment decisions on what they read here and if you are telling people things that are not true and they lose money because of it then it isn't right.
Also, AGNC has traded 10% below book value in the past. 5% is not out of the ordinary.
Trust me, nothing you say here will cause this stock to rise or fall so there is no point in not being 100% forthright.
The stock price has plateaued in the last few hours. It's this kind of price stability that I would expect to occur if AGNC had put out an order to buy all available shares at a price less than or equal to their offer.
Your explanation would seem more creditable if the price had leveled off when it was in a decline. If it levels off when it was increasing, which was the case, one could speculate that just the opposite was happening, that someone had placed a large sell order for any shares that exceeded a certain price. That seems more reasonable considering the chart. Both scenarios would have a stabilizing effect. Seriously, I think it is inconclusive as to whether they are buying or selling. I think the only thing that can be said is that maybe it is taking a long time for a very large order to get filled. That I will accept. But I don't think we can say what kind of an order it is.