ARR and JMI are holding their divs steady. TWO, which lets divs flop around quarterly and had a mixed cash and stock div last Q, cut the cash div from .32 to .31 this Q. If that's the sort of cash change that all the mREITs are seeing, then the ones that deliberately level fluctuations may find it easy to do so this quarter. So I'd predict that AGNC and MTGE will keep divs level with last Q.
This could be why the mREITs had a party today. Doubled and tripled the rest of the sectors. I'll hang on until we actually see the div, then play the runup.
AGNC, based on 1.50 taxable earnings in a quarter,
makes on average about 2.34c per day in taxable earnings.
By waiting an extra week to announce their dividend,
AGNC could potentially,
based on an average week in its existence,
make over 11.7c per share by next Thursday.
The flight from the REITs was swift,
as the rush to get back into them may be.
If AGNC waits to announce next week,
it may allow them to not only let the REIT frenzy play out,
but re-ignite their pps recovery with a dividend RAISE.
No raise, no way. A cut is possible, but I think it will probably stay $1.25 and it will definitely stay over $1.00, but a raise is out of the question for a company focused on "Economic "Return" during a period of BV declines. Also, their now smaller portfolio than that of 3/31/13 will generate less DRANSIPCS than the $1.18 from 4q12 and 1q13. A dividend raise is completely out of the question.
Shorts write articles about book value but dividends are based on income. Agnc is very consistent and even if they had to sell some assets at a loss they would spread the loss over several quarters. One dollar is probably the least they will pay for the next dividend.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
AGNC wouldn't do that. TWO lets its div float. AGNC prefers the div to be constant, even though income fluctuates. They'll only cut the div if the income has fallen well short and they think it won't allow them to make the end of the year with the current div. So if AGNC does come with any sort of div reduction, it's because of a disaster (possibly followon from last Q's earnings debacle).