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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • abcstockman abcstockman Jun 14, 2013 2:04 PM Flag

    Come on over to PER, Oil at an high and a fat DIVIDEND

    I moved over last week.

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    • Wow, I remember buying PER at about $19 a long time ago [several years], and selling for about $24. Now it's about $15. Where do you think it's going?

      • 2 Replies to ray858945
      • I think it will trade between $14.5-17 over the next year with .55-.65 dividend over the next few years. PER was way over priced just like AGNC was in the past. PER is protected by subs for a few more years so dividend should be stable. Looks like it will trail up into the next dividend paid in August.

      • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Jun 14, 2013 3:13 PM Flag

        In the dumper. Look at a chart more than a few months long. Oil stocks have been relatively stable since mid 2012, while PER slid through the line and has been on a decreasing trend since early 2012. Its recent 20% excursion from the norm has the tinge of some sort of major screwup to it.

        Someone would have to come up with a good answer as to what that was and how they can continue in business going forward. I think their biggest problem is that when the price of oil goes down, wells in that part of the country (central and NW Texas) stop pumping, and as it goes down more that avalanches. So it's vulnerable when oil is at a moderate price and threatening lower prices.

        It could come back to the fold if oil jumps a good 20%, but I'd just bet on oil instead, and get linear risk instead of a big cliff half a standard-deviation below status quo.

 
AGNC
21.58-0.02(-0.09%)Apr 24 4:00 PMEDT