Okay lets talk about your $26 target. Book as of June 7th was $26.22. It included the dividend. Lets look at book today.. Book fell from Q1 to Q2 by an equal amount according to management on the MS presentation they did. So.. We moved the same amount lower from the may to June 7 as we did from June 7th to now. So that means they lost another $2 per share roughly.. So book is $24.22ish, trading at a slight discount to NAV. So you really think it will go to $26? In an upwards rate environment - you think AGNC goes to $26? Are you nuts lol. Its goning to keep dropping if rates keep going up. PERIOD. END OF STORY. If rates go back down from this spike, yes.. then i think you see $26.
Could hit 30 by the end of the year. Pessimism is way over done because nothing has really changed. The government bond yields will not rise much above the inflation rate because the economy isn't strong enough to take it. The end of QE is data dependent and the data will not likely improve enough for the Fed to end QE. An 18% yield is a great entry point.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Can't be the bottom because x date is tuesday agnc will fall at least 1.05 that day so it's at least going to be in the 22 or 21 area. That is unless the market doesn't continue it's correction if that continues next week we can see 19 or 18 depending on how big a correction.
Do you even follow this stock? The last div. in March was $1.25 paid on the 18th. On the 15th of March the stock was $31.87. After the $1.25 div. paid on March 18th it closed at $31.98 and on the 19th of March it closed at $31.87. Look at the daily action and click on dividends and see for yourself.
I disagree because right now the stock is going down because the Fed has hinted that it might start raising the funds rate sometime in the future. Wait until they actually do start to raise it. This drop will look like nothing in comparison.
So are you imagining that you can buy now, wait for the price to be pumped up by all the longs who are ignoring the possibility of this future scenario, and then get out before the Fed actually makes an announcement that it is raising the funds rate? If so, isn't there an easier way to make money with a lot less risk? This seems like a lot of effort and risk for such a small return that has to be so precisely timed in order for it to be successful.
the fed stated that funds rates will be kept low until at least 2015. as the interest rates rise in the market, the spread between borrow and receipts will widen which will produce higher income. as long as that spread in the curve remains solid, when the fed does start to raise loan rates the income should remain the same. also remember that the fed said they would not be selling the MBS portfolio it has, just tapering the buying. if this scenario plays out, then we should see a rising stock price along with a high dividend payout. last time i played it like this i made 60% between the two. that is a tough one to find anywhere else.