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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • innsbrooklad innsbrooklad Jun 25, 2013 4:04 PM Flag

    I Have Never Seen

    so many bashers on one message board in my life. I am waiting for Barak Obama to chime in. An 18% dividend covers a lot of sins, On May 2nd this stock was at $33.00. That yield was 15%. If we revert back to the mean with a $4.20 dividend the price should be $28. I do not buy the book value argument as a sane man has to imagine these guys shorted 10 year Treasury Notes to hedge their long MBS. There is no other MREIT that has a yield remotely close to AGNC. I bought a bunch at the 200 week moving average, $22.30. It did trade lower but not much. In less than 2 months the stock loses 30% in value? It is rare to ever see a company trade at an RSI below 30 on a weekly basis.

    I am willing to wait for the 6/30 numbers and give Kain et al a chance at redemption. I do not see the Fed raising short term rates so I expect to see AGNC's funding costs remain pretty low. I expect they hedged correctly this time around. I wholly expected to see a dividend drop to $.75 for the quarter because the market had given them plenty of room to take the hit and they didn't.

    Based on the number of negative posts I think there may be a problem out there in hedge fund world.
    They have a great group of institutional holders and I can't see them bailing. While MREITS are usually used by hedge funds for cash flow, I imagine some of them hit a wall and had to get liquid. Look at the beating Ray Dalio took this year.

    Arrogance truly is before the fall.

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AGNC
20.86+0.19(+0.92%)May 29 4:00 PMEDT