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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • ninht88 ninht88 Jul 1, 2013 10:11 AM Flag

    Awaiting for new 52wk low again!!

    AGNC is poised to hit low in next few weeks. I will buy this at $20.

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    • One lesson I have learned is that it is a mistake to buy a stock that is in a down trend until it has clearly reversed and is in an uptrend. You won't hit the bottom but then you won't follow it down further either. This desire to hit the bottom is pure greed. Leave the greed to others. It usually leads people to do foolish things. It is better to be patient and accept the fact that you won't make all that you could have made had you timed it perfectly knowing that the likelihood of timing it perfectly was pretty low anyway. Just wait. Wait until the stock starts to go up again for a while and then buy. Even if it flattens out right after you buy and all you make is the dividend from then on, what is the harm in that? At least you avoided the risk of losing money on the way down.

      That said, with interest rates slated to go higher I suspect that even if this stock goes up and flattens out that it is likely start to moving back down again when the Fed actually starts to raise the funds rate. Count yourself lucky if this happens before you get a chance to buy back in. With that in mind I suspect that this stock will be a clear buy when the funds rate has moved up and then flattened out at where ever that is going to be. The trend has been for it to flatten at lower and lower levels over the last 30 years. The last time it leveled off at 5.25% so I'm guessing that it will be somewhere between 3.5% and 4.5%. Thus if you buy back in before the funds rate is at 3.5% I would say that you are not even trying to consider the fundamental issues that drive the price of this stock and are simply observing the chart and trying to guess at what will happen next. And if you do that you have no edge and I suspect that your losses will become someone else's profits.

      Normally the funds rate rises pretty consistently for a few years and then it abruptly stops. It is not hard to time. In fact it is pretty easy. Why make it any more complicated than it is?

    • ninht88, Since you're pulling shet out of your A $$ , Who wins the AFC this year?

    • AGNC is poised to hit low in next few weeks. I will buy this at $20.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Ok dokie !! Can't wait.

 
AGNC
23.36Aug 20 4:00 PMEDT

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