This economy is looking much the way it did in early 2000, and mid 2005. Both times we were sitting at the top of a bubble and everyone was ecstatic. This time the bubble is in common stock prices, which have been artificially inflated by the Fed. As with the last two bubbles, it's not possible to predict when this one will pop, but it will be very bad with unbelievable amounts of wealth destruction.
It was announced today that the market value of Priceline is now greater than FedEx. Tesla stock is sky high. Amazon is not any closer to making money than it was in 2000. AGNC will be a good buy soon, but not right now.
I would not be surprised that when we enter the next recession that the unemployment rate is still not that much better than it is today. So from that perspective what we have now may be the boom times. It is just that the boom doesn't look like a boom. But I'm not surprised considering. It is what I had expected since 2008.
You have to figure at some point people will have had enough of this. No one is so patient that they will put up with this madness indefinitely. Of course you probably have some people who don't even know we are in a recession. If asked they would want you to explain what a recession is and then ask you to pass the joint after which they would stare blankly into the distance. They probably don't work anyway.
I've owned TSLA since it was $40 and I agree that it is over valued. But I still believe that I can find a greater fool to buy it at a higher price in the future. These TSLA stock owners are clueless. Valuation means nothing if people are willing to pay anything for it. Its a name brand issue. People pay more for TSLA stocks because people know that other people are willing to pay more than it is worth.
I would guess that 95% of TSLA stock owners don't know how to do a valuation analysis. Most aren't even aware that it is over priced. So as long as that is the case I will trade it as such.
Remember that the 10Y tells the story. The Longs hated me for saying that - so now the Shorts can hate me for saying that too!
The 10Y reversed and AGNC soared and I wouldn't be surprised to see the 10Y hit 2.5% with the Fed continuing it's pump!