I think based on the data, that this will be a good trade. Saying this before the ex-date, not playing it, just saying based on the facts and being objective, no emotions, good trade not to take the divy, and pay taxes on it including the new Obamacare tax if your in the higher brackets.
I actually shorted JCPenney (JCP) a couple weeks back when Ackman announced he sold his stake and the stock rallied to over $14. I don't believe a 2-3 point rally in a company still loosing money was unwarranted, objectively. I believe some of the noxious either from the FED delaying tapering which caused the equity markets to rise on what seems as nothing but noxious psychological ether from Bernanke's basement lab. – perhaps unintentionally – released another tank of the stuff. Good time to short the facts.
If you have the knowledge and ability to book profits while the maket is on this noxious psychological ether you have a nice little business. I developed a nice little business on identifying assets that rose from this either and watch for opportunities when these things blow, like JCP.
This is an experiment that has not yet run its course and you can still make money as long as you have a map of where we are, where we came from and where we are headed. Without it, you are just a guinea pig in Ben Bernanke's laboratory on the Island of QE for infinity.
This was an excellent trade. You did not get saddled with an 80 cent dividend on your non-qualified dividend line on your 1040 form and you got to substitute your $1.59 short term capital gain. More than doubled the dividend amount. Believe this or not, I did this for 2-1/2 years and only missed one time out of 10. I pocketed double or triple the amount. The only time I didn't, wasn't bad either, they paid $1.25 and I made $1.40, which was essentially a wash. Another bonus of report short term capital gains instead of dividends, if you had a long or short term capital loss carryover from previous years or the current year, the capital gains reported from the short term trading was essentially tax free, increasing you return another 40%, for a total positive differential advantage of 140% of the regular dividend amount or almost triple the 18% divy or 54%.
What I have described is professional serious investing. This is just like the pro-bowlers who throw 9 strikes on average out of ten frames, game after game.
I sold yesterday for 24.18 but still quite pleased. I bought AGNC for about 16 bucks back in 2008 about 6 months after they were spun out of ACAS and have held, collecting dividends, all this time. I got scared when Malon bought a bunch of AGNC stock @ 32 earlier this year (I think if I was a bird and relied on his timing to migrate south for the winter I'd freeze to death on the power lines). What really drove me to sell was their decision to buy back stock instead of pay me my well deserved dividend. I'm afraid the apple hasn't fallen far from the tree; ACAS has been on a buy-stock-instead-of-pay-dividend-while-they-keep-saying-they-are-pro-shareholder strategy for a couple of years and all I see there is that they have granted the buyback stock to their managers. I decided not to stick around for a ditto type screwing here.