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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • gary_kain gary_kain Oct 18, 2013 2:04 PM Flag

    FYI: AGNC: total return

    if you bought AGNC April 28th 2011 (like me) and just held on, and put your dividends in the mattress (or a similar return of zero or better) you would have a total return of 23.5% or annual equivalent of 8.80%
    your dividend adjusted value per share would be $35.

    Guess AGNC did not turn out to be such a bad investment after all.
    no headaches, no sleepless nights, no erectile dysfunction.

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    • yourbestfriendintheworld yourbestfriendintheworld Oct 21, 2013 1:27 PM Flag

      Could have done without the 40% swing in the meantime.

    • Back in second quarter of 2012, you had a 33%, you obviously didn't realize this but you were in the top 1/10% of professional investment managers, hats off to you. Too bad you didn't manage and optimize and protect your hard earned work. I did. Best way to remember, is this story I was told by an elder who trained me. You were like an investor who struck gold at 33% back in June 2012, you were walking down Wall Street, and a mugger robbed you at the intersection of 3rd quarter and canal streets, who only took your 100 dollar bills and left you with all the smaller denominations. You continued walking to the police station to report the crime, which was 10 blocks away, and another mugger, robs you, at 4th quarter and state streets, but this time takes all your 50's and says keep the small #$%$ and lets you go. So after two muggings you quicken your pace, you are lighter and faster and a third mugger on a cycle, who happens to be an off duty copper, says you were speed walking, let me see your license in your wallet, so you hand him your wallet, he looks through it and said, I 'll just take the 20's and 10's and give you a warning and leave you the singles and fives in case you have an emergency on the way home. Life is predictable, it cycles, there is good and bad since the origin of life.

      • 1 Reply to dr_klumps
      • Now I know why people do not like you.
        Of course I am not a money manager...sure if I would have sold AGNC at the top and
        Bought FB and GOOG and shorted Gold I would have made a lot more money.
        you must be very unhappy. even when you win, you lose.
        what I am saying is 8.80 annual yield for the last 2.5 yrs is nice. NOT THE BEST but nice.
        And not a loser....

    • I would like to do a more dynamic analysis of your investment, if you don't mind, and use your data and calculations that you did.

      From April 28, 2011 to October 18, 2013, is 2 yrs and almost 6 months. Doing your total return (TR) cummulative calculation and Annual Equivalent Yield (AEY), but calculate them quarterly, like your M-REIT reports earnings. You will see, you had quarters in 2011, and most of 2012, where you earned the divy of 14-20% plus capital appreciation ranged from (-24%) to +15% per quarter.
      Second 2011 20% + 0% = 20%, random
      Third 2011 19% + 5% = 24%, random
      Fourth 2011 18% + 0% =18%, random
      First 2012 18% + 15% = 18%, random
      Second 2012 18% + 15% = 33%, non-random
      Third 2012 18% + 0% = 18%, non-random
      Fourth 2012 18% - 10% = 8%, non-random, chaos
      First 2013 16% + 3% = 19%, random
      Second 2013 14% - 24% = -(10%), non-random, chaos
      Third 2013 14% -10% = 4%, random
      Do a dynamic analysis, instead of the simple analysis you did, showed you were smart to not just buy and hold, but to identify the variables, random, non-random and chaos, and get out when you optimized your expected returns, like I did in Second and Third Quarter, 2012. If you got out in Second Quarter 2012 you had 33% annual gain. If you got out Third Quarter 2011, you have 24% annual gain. If you got out in 2 months, 2nd qtr 2011 and got zero return for 10 mos. in MMA, you got a 20% annual gain. But you stayed in it forever, and you average 8.8% annual return. You obviously are not a money manager who gets paid for performance.

    • That is if you sold today, which in 3 hours of less is over, trade wise. You are doing a static analysis only good for the next 2-3 hours. Not much value for forward looking folks, like investors. As investors, you need to focus on the future, estimate expectations and assign probability weights to those outcomes and come up with a future value of AGNC, X(t+1) = stock price at t or time plus 1, or 2 or 3.....12. Using Non-random theory, a trend is noticeable, a "downward" trend indicating this is not random but predictable. People who believe in non-random theory believe prices move in trends and past pricing action can be used to predict future prices. Lots of economic studies to support this theory and prove the random walk theory false. What they found was shocking from dozens or research projects, found that stocks that rose for 3-5 years straight, ussually underperformed the next 3-5 years straight, which is predictable, very very predictable. Looking at the same hypothesis and evidence also found support that non-random theory supports the Random Walk theory over the longer term, when you averaged in 5 years of outperformance with the 5 years of uncerperformance, you arrive at a mean, which then can be shown to be a bell curve and symmetrically distributed, meaning what goes around comes around. These theories and findings also draw support to the meaning of life and why we are here, origins of life and bull markets.

      • 1 Reply to dr_klumps
      • The present PE of this stock is under 3 with book value of 25.80. The QE easing has not happened and now looks like it's on hold since the shut-down hurt the economy and will take another year at least to ease. In the meantime, collect this nice div. and hold at least until interest rates truly take a turn upwards which does not seem likely until 2015. That leaves you with several div. payouts to average your cost down per share. Why take a hit too early.

 
AGNC
22.73+0.02(+0.09%)Sep 15 4:15 PMEDT

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