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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • areulonely2004 areulonely2004 Feb 1, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    Earnings Call predictions here:

    Will they Beat? I don't think so. Hope I am wrong.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • I just got back into AGNC last week. I may have timed it wrong.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 3 Replies to areulonely2004
      • danielyuhasz Feb 4, 2014 8:47 PM Flag

        When I saw the earnings last night I began to think the same thing but the earnings reflects last quarter but there are better indicators showing a better present and future for REITs. I do think the uptrend will continue but this sector will have to be watched. After silver hits a bottom this summer I will sell part or all of the AGNC and buy SLVO which pays monthly. GLDI is also good but its to early to buy both of them.

      • It's a unexpectedly bad result - which calls into question the investment thesis for this name. If you can't hedge your way through a mild quarter after spending all that money on various instruments it's not a good thing.

        Basically it looks like they're set up to lose under almost every scenario.

        A negative economic return of is negative 2.73% for the quarter - very disappointing.

        Basically it's beginning to appear like this business cannot be effectively hedged by derivatives - it needs to exist in the underlying assets, which converts this "business" into a garbled bond play.

        I still have a blob of shares in this and MTGE because I thought GK would get it right by now and at least protect BV for the impairment to income.

        The happy talk about how great January was is a lot of mumbo jumbo - we all know it can turn on a dime. The question was can they function effectively in varying macro environments - so far the answer is "no".


      • I don't think so, there's a lot of bad news already baked in at this price and in spite of this current correction we are likely to see continued improvement as the year progresses.

    • danielyuhasz Feb 3, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

      I think after market price per share will be up today and things will get better for REITs in the next few months. REITs will not have the largest gains in the stock market but you can have this as your safe stock to balance out more risky stock like HZNP, FNMA and PLUG which is where the real money is.

    • If you read scott's article on SA.. (seeking alpha) he does detailed analysis... like seriously detailed... every penny accounted for. Book value should be around $24.53 i think he said and the buybacks were something around 0.34/share of value add. But keep in mind book was calculated for when the 10 year yield was 3%. Book should be nearly a $1.00/share higher today.

23.47+0.08(+0.34%)10:33 AMEDT

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