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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

  • pacman010987 pacman010987 Aug 13, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    US Economy Going Back To Recession

    The US economy is slowing. Retail sales are down. Home sales are slowing. GDP on an annualized rate is pathetic and will be lucky to get 2% this year. In 2003-04 the jobs market rebounded around 500k jobs a month. 5 years ago.. when the recession ended.. we have never been able to average more than 200k jobs per month. We are still not getting anywhere near the kind of jobs required to bring the economy back before the next recession. QE was a failure. The economy is still failing. If the fed raises rates in 2015, it will spell the doom of the economy as we know it. GDP will contract around 4-6% annually. The fed can't raise rates for a very very long time. Period. If they do.. they will have to back-peddle and lower them when they see for themselves the amount of damage it would cause. Even if they don't raise rates.. the US economy will still likely enter a recession by early 2016 if not 2015. Japan bonds are 0.50% on 10s... German bonds are 1% on 10s... US bonds.. almost the cheapest are at 2.42%!!! they will drop to 1.75% and still be cheap! So yes, I think US 10 year bonds are going down to 1.75% by end of 2014. AGNC's NAV will be around $32.

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