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Qiagen NV Message Board

  • kcam57 kcam57 Jan 9, 2008 6:52 AM Flag

    Guidance

    Did we already know this?

    Check page 30 of the PDF from yesterday's conference...

    http://www1.qiagen.com/about/InvestorRelation/aboupdf/confcall/080108_JPM_PS.pdf

    More unadulterated pumping...

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    • yeah we already knew that...november

      but what was sort of interesting if you do the numbers is that he said twice during the presentation that they were at an 800mm run rate based on q3

      q3 revs were 176 which is 700mm run rate

      now it could be that he's including the roughly 20mm from July of Digene revenue they "missed" since the deal closed 7/31, which makes it 196mm, close to that 200mm run rate

      in any case, 800 mm is a number stuck in the guys head and it suggests to me that this q will come in maybe 5mm over high end of guidance if you do the math

      right now it looks like qgen is in the "defensive" category, with which i agree, remaining strong despite the carnage (since 12/31 outperformed the naz by 12.5% or so) ... when they start throwing out the babies with the bathwater the defensives will come down too but for now holding up well

      • 1 Reply to incas58
      • The (very ?) interesting slide to me is 20. It shows the penetration in US, Europe, Asia/Latin America.IMO, the US could easily double; Europe could increase five-fold, and Asia/LA ? say five-fold as well (all over three years)...this would increase HPV tests an additional 22.9m, and , at $10 profit per , add over a dollar in profits per share to QGEN , or $30 to the share price... ( I suspect that is conservative, especially when the test becomes explicit SOC and everyone , including lawyers, jump on the bandwagon) ..add that to other QGEN growth...easy triple in three years....

 
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