Excuse me, but I think Incas has been saying this for about 10 years<gg>
excellent, thanks marsala!
by the way, this stock is so cheap right now that i believe it raises the "risk" of a buyout....someone like GE, ABT, or Siemens for example could digest it without any trouble...
Just received my first unsolicited promotion from from "Digene: a Qiagen company" in the mail yesterday. It was directed particularly to me as a Family Physician. It had an intro into HPV and the new ASCCP guidelines then a back and front sheet with the Medical guideline recommendation from national organizations for primary screening in WOT's. Included ACOG/ACS/NIH/ARHP/ICSI/NPWH/AMWA/ASCCP among others. Simple and strong message. Moving beyond the Gyno's now.
macro issues are gonna take a while longer but we're getting there it seems...gonna be a roller coaster rest of this year no doubt
fwiw at the lehman conference yesterday the question was directed to Doug Liu from Qiagen about "the impact of Third Waves approval for their hpv test"...i think third wave has done an excellent job of spinning if they can create the impression that they have an approved test! given that there is no data published and they haven't even submitted, nor was there any detail whatsoever in the PR etc
response was clear and said that the announcement of a possible fda submission is a long way from an approved test and that they believe with qiagens's technology AND just as important their customer relationships they believe they will maintain market leadership without breaking much of a sweat (ok that last part i made up, the sweating part)
still dirt cheap
like KC i added last week.As long as the macro issues that have decimated this market since its oct highs are resolved in a concerted,broad,innovative fashion qgen should flourish this calender year.The multi-prong approach by the fed and the response today is a huge vote of confidence in the markets and the fed action which was sorely needed.
Qgen will do fine as long as confidence returns and the credit/financial markets are stabilized.The other problems have been around before and they are garden variety compared to the unique challenges of illiquidity and the de-leveraging going on in the financial/credit system which is generating all the fear and anxiety that this may be more than a mild recession and even a different classification.
As to the qgen stock price i think the dollar close on the dax of $18.36 was a suppressant on naz.Since we closed @$18.68 here my expectation is we'll rise tommorow even if the averages are down in the U.S since we were up about 1% compared to 4% on the s&p.
No matter what happens day to day qgen is well positioned to expand its leadership role paricularly in the molecular diagnostics field which should provide top/bottom numbers this year that make it a standout performer, contingent upon the normalization of our financial /credit markets.
hey KC, thought you had abandoned me to my delusional mutterings ...
the fact that we didn't bounce back much is making me reconsider my thoughts that it was forced selling...all i can say is that if this multiple compression is of twti then they are making a big mistake...
it's not often you can be THE market leader in a space (more than on space actually, sample and assay as well as the number one for molecular diagnstics ex-blood bank and viral load), with industry leading organic growth, dozens of products in the pipeline and right at the acceleration of their lead product with no visible competition for 18-24 months and even then (without automation or approval out of the vial, and fighting a more mature market against a massive sales/marketing machine...), and with world class management for a multiple WELL BELOW it's growth rate...and don't tell me about the E getting smaller...they will more than likely beat guidance this year
lovin' it...not the pounding but the prospects
the only thing that keeps me awake at night is a roche approval...again, i don't think they are competitive with their very low throughput and labor intensive test but the headline risk exists...if holders sold this off on twti's application for pete's sake, a roche approval would hurt
don't mind me, just talking to myself
in re-reading the third wave PR it seems notable that they only mentioned data related to ascus and meeting ALTS requirements
i'm skeptical that the fda would approve with an ascus indication only given that it would then be used off-label for primary, unless they have convincing primary data, which to me will take longer ... the potential for very negative repercussions for patients and the healthcare system with a test that doesn't have really well-documented sens/spec performance in broad patient populations over the long term are too high...
i think that is why third wave included the line saying:
<<Third Wave believes that an HPV clinical trial is a highly complex undertaking with significant risks both before and after submission to the FDA.>>
which again i find highly unusual...think it's gonna be a very long road with some disappointment on the way but getting the stock price up may help them if they float something off that shelf they filed...
qiagen is back to where it was pre-digene so they aren't assigning much value to that business, at all...
still think this was some kind of forced selling though since it's totally irrational to sell qiagen off this hard on the expected twti news...