Impact of Panobinostat? Actually could be a positive for Kyprolis
Seems to be a wave of new shorts based on the Novartis Ph3 success with panobinostat plus velcade & dex over velcade & dex alone in r/r/ MM, with fear it will hurt Kyprolis sales. But actually there is also an ongoing study of panobinostat w/ carfilzomib (search clinical trials (dot) gov), and given mechanism of action, one can conclude the probability of technical success just rose with this forthcoming study as well. If the addition of panobinostat (if and when approved) to standard of care improves outcomes as I hope, if might actually increase sales of carfilzomib, as more pts live longer and are then eligible to be treated with carfilzomib, and also an improved outcome from panobinostat plus carfilzomib.
As I see it, anyone shorting $LGND based on hunch that panobinostat will decrease Kyprolis sales, thus negatively effecting Ligand royalty and captisol sales, has little understanding of the drivers of the oncology market or perhaps more importantly, the breadth of Ligand's revenue streams.
Everyone should have a personal stalker. $LGND board? Meet mine.
Among other things, he's a tee'd off $CMG long, on the record it's going to $600. He might be right on $CMG PT, and I admit he have been right on its direction over the last year. But at the current range, I'm happy taking the other side of his bet, as I see more headwinds in the future for the over priced seller of burritos. And I'm happy using extra funds from a $CMG short to buy faster growing names... like $LGND. Still, my $CMG short is a very small part and only in my personal portfolio... part of a longer term pairs trade, that while working out, has yet to provide the next big drop in $CMG I foresee coming.