Xicor, Inc. (XICO) Message Board

Thanks for the clarification.

There's a news item released at 6PM tonight, for some new real time clock products with eeprom memory, prices range from $1.85-$3.09 in 100 unit quantities. Not showing on Yahoo news yet.

I am glad you folks think I am too conservative,
because the implication is for even higher prices than my
forecast 24-30 high for 2000.

As far as the poster
who said 60,000 shares traded after hours, this is a
misunderstood and
overrated bit of info. Everyone who wants
to track late trades should sign up for the
free
www.mytrack.com service which shows time and sales of all
trades.

The information while basically accurate is
misleading in its implication. Those shares were all
reported with a code "T" which means a late reporting of a
trade occurring earlier in the day. The most common
explanation of large
transactions is when, for example, a
customer gives a broker an order to buy 25,000 shares at
12 3/4, including commissions. The broker will then
spend the day trying to fill the order a few thousand
here and a few thousand there
below 12 3/4. After
the close of trading, you will then see the
cumulative amount bought printed in one ticket. During the
day you would see the sell side of the small trades
and the buy side for the brokerage firm's trading
account - so when the final amount is reported
the
trade is actually counted 3 times versus what you would
see on the NYSE.

My initial reaction to Jeff's model did change
but not totally. I do not accept his expected revenue
numbers (an increase of only 15% in '00). I base this on
firm ASPs (et al). Xicor is capable of growing
revenues even with falling ASPs so this environment is
very positive not to mention all the new products.


I posted a scenario (#2616) that shows about 152M
in revenue in '00 a 23% increase. Even this might be
conservative depending on how the new products fair (I think
the 160M run rate that someone mentioned by 4th qtr
'00 is quite possible and can not be ruled out so
quickly).

I also don't agree with Jeff's view on price
appreciation and valuation (mine are more accelerated). I do
understand his position and it is rational.

On the
SPO...I am warming up to the idea because of some of the
good experiences posted but my past experience has
been more negative. I haven't really analyzed whether
Xicor could support the kind of explosive growth I'm
predicting on the working capital that they have/will have
from operations.

I do (after some discussion)
basically agree with Jeff's R&D and SG&A, but its hard to
know until we see how the fab facility plays into the
SG&A.

Regardless of my differences with the model I do appreciate
that it was posted because it provides for discussion
and thought which is always helpful.

SERIOUSLY take a long look at LTXX and see what
their SPO did for them.. which included 2 new analyst
coverage w/min. buy ratings... short term price $23-$25
w/long term of $35... Tell me why you wouldn't do a SPO
inorder to raise working capital w/o debet??? LTXX
announced their's at yr. end 1999 and they raised somewere
in the neighborhood of like $64 million... it was
HIGHLY accepted on that day... price reflection was
weird but MOSTEROUS vol. that day... someone mentioned
they wouldn't do that around $12 range.. well my
statement of a good time to do it being end of Fiscal was
because it turned out to be a good thing for LTXX going
into Fiscal 00... as we all are hoping for this stock
will continue higher still.. so w/99 yr. end closing
at the end of the month it might be a possibility...
just pure wishful thinking on my part based on what I
have seen it do for LTXX and since others have
mentioned it also... just FYI it takes approx. 30-45 days
after announcement before SPO is priced and offered on
the St.

I have greatly enjoyed this board since it seems
the most informed and rational of any that I read.
Thanks to those of you who are thoughtful
contributors.

My reaction to Jeff's model numbers was similar to
that of physicsdh and xicor2000. I didn't like his
numbers then and I still don't. Basically, as Jeff
himself admits, his numbers do not assume much progress
from the company. They assume a continued favorable
environment and the gains implicit from the structure the
company has already put in place.

I would like to
know why physicsdh so quickly and totally changed his
opinion about the numbers.

But it seems to me that
Xicor is a company that relies on two types of
engineers, namely sales engineers who must interface with
the customers, know what they want, know what is
possible, and communicate with the other class of
engineers, namely design engineers. How well these people
perform will largely determine Xicor's future, including
its stock price, and I believe they have been doing
very well this past year.

BTW, a secondary
offering is a very poor idea if it is meant only to
improve working capital. Xicor is a company of long
standing. Such companies, as distinguished from the current
rash of technical company IPOs, should not be forced
to run to the capital markets for sustenance.
Historically such secondaries have been treated with scorn by
the markets. If Xicor can make a case for a special
need, in terms of new products, then a secondary might
be feasible.

I have greatly enjoyed this board since it seems
the most informed and rational of any that I read.
Thanks to those of you who are thoughtful
contributors.

My reaction to Jeff's model numbers was similar to
that of physicsdh and xicor2000. I didn't like his
numbers then and I still don't. Basically, as Jeff
himself admits, his numbers do not assume much progress
from the company. They assume a continued favorable
environment and the gains implicit from the structure the
company has already put in place.

I would like to
know why physicsdh so quickly and totally changed his
opinion about the numbers.

But it seems to me that
Xicor is a company that relies on two types of
engineers, namely sales engineers who must interface with
the customers, know what they want, know what is
possible, and communicate with the other class of
engineers, namely design engineers. How well these people
perform will largely determine Xicor's future, including
its stock price, and I believe they have been doing
very well this past year.

BTW, a secondary
offering is a very poor idea if it is meant only to
improve working capital. Xicor is a company of long
standing. Such companies, as distinguished from the current
rash of technical company IPOs, should not be forced
to run to the capital markets for sustenance.
Historically such secondaries have been treated with scorn by
the markets. If Xicor can make a case for a special
need, in terms of new products, then a secondary might
be feasible.

I have greatly enjoyed this board since it seems
the most informed and rational of any that I read.
Thanks to those of you who are thoughtful
contributors.

My reaction to Jeff's model numbers was similar to
that of physicsdh and xicor2000. I didn't like his
numbers then and I still don't. Basically, as Jeff
himself admits, his numbers do not assume much progress
from the company. They assume a continued favorable
environment and the gains implicit from the structure the
company has already put in place.

I would like to
know why physicsdh so quickly and totally changed his
opinion about the numbers.

But it seems to me that
Xicor is a company that relies on two types of
engineers, namely sales engineers who must interface with
the customers, know what they want, know what is
possible, and communicate with the other class of
engineers, namely design engineers. How well these people
perform will largely determine Xicor's future, including
its stock price, and I believe they have been doing
very well this past year.

BTW, a secondary
offering is a very poor idea if it is meant only to
improve working capital. Xicor is a company of long
standing. Such companies, as distinguished from the current
rash of technical company IPOs, should not be forced
to run to the capital markets for sustenance.
Historically such secondaries have been treated with scorn by
the markets. If Xicor can make a case for a special
need, in terms of new products, then a secondary might
be feasible.

I believe that all we have so far is the
potential for significant growth.

However, in my
opinion, what is different this time is the change to the
fabless business model. This will give the company both
the capacity to deliver increases in sales and the
cost structure to achieve them without having to
resort to high priced proprietary products (selling in
low volumes), as was required at Milpitas to cover
the costs. The key announcement for me this year was
actually the 25 cent DCP chip announcement.

You
will note that my model results in Post 2604 include
pretty conservative sales assumptions to come up with
pretty impressive results, that more than justify the
current price. I believe that is why the "silent stampede
continues in the in-bound direction
unabated". I am sure
that I am far from the only one who has modelled the
potential. To date it has not required any great leap of
faith in dramatic sales growth to justify purchase.


It is my guess that if they are not able to get on a
rapid sales growth track the structural improvements,
which will mean higher profitability on any given level
of sales, would still get the stock to $20 or so. If
they can become a growth company, the stock can
probably do twice as well in this semiconductor business
cycle (assuming it lasts a couple more years).

I was here in 96 too, but I recall it
differently. First, etched forever in my memory, there was the
sudden and sharp break in the stock price which occurred
in the summer, followed by a weak recovery during
the fall to less than prior heights. It was clear and
obvious in November to the founder of the Xicor thread on
Silicon Investor that something was afoot. We were in
almost daily private communications at the time. We both
observed the beginnings of the silent stampede for the
door. He took that as his cue to step aside, a wise
move retrospectively. I was not so astute.


History has not even begun to repeat itself in that
regard. To the contrary, the silent stempede continues in
the in-bound direction unabated. I think you will be
seeing the start of coverage shortly. And now some
famous last words, truse me in this, its really
different this time.<g>