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Xicor, Inc. (XICO) Message Board

  • MirzaFatollah MirzaFatollah Jun 22, 1999 2:52 PM Flag

    !!! Top alerts !!!

    On 06/21/99:
    XICO reached a new 52-week high.


    On 06/21/99:
    Trading volume for XICO was triple
    its 13-week average, and its price was up by at least
    5%. A jump in price on big volume is generally
    considered a bullish indicator because it suggests that the
    stock is under accumulation.

    On 06/17/99:

    XICO reached a new 52-week high. Learn More.

    On
    06/17/99:
    Trading volume for XICO was triple its
    13-week average, and its price was up by at least 5%. A
    jump in price on big volume is generally considered a
    bullish indicator because it suggests that the stock is
    under accumulation.

    On 06/16/99:
    Trading
    volume for XICO was triple its 13-week average, and its
    price was up by at least 5%. A jump in price on big
    volume is generally considered a bullish indicator
    because it suggests that the stock is under
    accumulation.

    Learn more, see the historical chart for yourself
    at:
    http://investor.msn.com/research/msnbc/newsnap.asp?Symbol=XICO

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Thanks for the clarification.

    • There's a news item released at 6PM tonight, for some new real time clock products with eeprom memory, prices range from $1.85-$3.09 in 100 unit quantities. Not showing on Yahoo news yet.

    • I am glad you folks think I am too conservative,
      because the implication is for even higher prices than my
      forecast 24-30 high for 2000.

      As far as the poster
      who said 60,000 shares traded after hours, this is a
      misunderstood and
      overrated bit of info. Everyone who wants
      to track late trades should sign up for the
      free
      www.mytrack.com service which shows time and sales of all
      trades.

      The information while basically accurate is
      misleading in its implication. Those shares were all
      reported with a code "T" which means a late reporting of a
      trade occurring earlier in the day. The most common
      explanation of large
      transactions is when, for example, a
      customer gives a broker an order to buy 25,000 shares at
      12 3/4, including commissions. The broker will then
      spend the day trying to fill the order a few thousand
      here and a few thousand there
      below 12 3/4. After
      the close of trading, you will then see the
      cumulative amount bought printed in one ticket. During the
      day you would see the sell side of the small trades
      and the buy side for the brokerage firm's trading
      account - so when the final amount is reported
      the
      trade is actually counted 3 times versus what you would
      see on the NYSE.

    • My initial reaction to Jeff's model did change
      but not totally. I do not accept his expected revenue
      numbers (an increase of only 15% in '00). I base this on
      firm ASPs (et al). Xicor is capable of growing
      revenues even with falling ASPs so this environment is
      very positive not to mention all the new products.


      I posted a scenario (#2616) that shows about 152M
      in revenue in '00 a 23% increase. Even this might be
      conservative depending on how the new products fair (I think
      the 160M run rate that someone mentioned by 4th qtr
      '00 is quite possible and can not be ruled out so
      quickly).

      I also don't agree with Jeff's view on price
      appreciation and valuation (mine are more accelerated). I do
      understand his position and it is rational.

      On the
      SPO...I am warming up to the idea because of some of the
      good experiences posted but my past experience has
      been more negative. I haven't really analyzed whether
      Xicor could support the kind of explosive growth I'm
      predicting on the working capital that they have/will have
      from operations.

      I do (after some discussion)
      basically agree with Jeff's R&D and SG&A, but its hard to
      know until we see how the fab facility plays into the
      SG&A.

      Regardless of my differences with the model I do appreciate
      that it was posted because it provides for discussion
      and thought which is always helpful.

    • SERIOUSLY take a long look at LTXX and see what
      their SPO did for them.. which included 2 new analyst
      coverage w/min. buy ratings... short term price $23-$25
      w/long term of $35... Tell me why you wouldn't do a SPO
      inorder to raise working capital w/o debet??? LTXX
      announced their's at yr. end 1999 and they raised somewere
      in the neighborhood of like $64 million... it was
      HIGHLY accepted on that day... price reflection was
      weird but MOSTEROUS vol. that day... someone mentioned
      they wouldn't do that around $12 range.. well my
      statement of a good time to do it being end of Fiscal was
      because it turned out to be a good thing for LTXX going
      into Fiscal 00... as we all are hoping for this stock
      will continue higher still.. so w/99 yr. end closing
      at the end of the month it might be a possibility...
      just pure wishful thinking on my part based on what I
      have seen it do for LTXX and since others have
      mentioned it also... just FYI it takes approx. 30-45 days
      after announcement before SPO is priced and offered on
      the St.

    • I have greatly enjoyed this board since it seems
      the most informed and rational of any that I read.
      Thanks to those of you who are thoughtful
      contributors.

      My reaction to Jeff's model numbers was similar to
      that of physicsdh and xicor2000. I didn't like his
      numbers then and I still don't. Basically, as Jeff
      himself admits, his numbers do not assume much progress
      from the company. They assume a continued favorable
      environment and the gains implicit from the structure the
      company has already put in place.

      I would like to
      know why physicsdh so quickly and totally changed his
      opinion about the numbers.

      But it seems to me that
      Xicor is a company that relies on two types of
      engineers, namely sales engineers who must interface with
      the customers, know what they want, know what is
      possible, and communicate with the other class of
      engineers, namely design engineers. How well these people
      perform will largely determine Xicor's future, including
      its stock price, and I believe they have been doing
      very well this past year.

      BTW, a secondary
      offering is a very poor idea if it is meant only to
      improve working capital. Xicor is a company of long
      standing. Such companies, as distinguished from the current
      rash of technical company IPOs, should not be forced
      to run to the capital markets for sustenance.
      Historically such secondaries have been treated with scorn by
      the markets. If Xicor can make a case for a special
      need, in terms of new products, then a secondary might
      be feasible.

    • I have greatly enjoyed this board since it seems
      the most informed and rational of any that I read.
      Thanks to those of you who are thoughtful
      contributors.

      My reaction to Jeff's model numbers was similar to
      that of physicsdh and xicor2000. I didn't like his
      numbers then and I still don't. Basically, as Jeff
      himself admits, his numbers do not assume much progress
      from the company. They assume a continued favorable
      environment and the gains implicit from the structure the
      company has already put in place.

      I would like to
      know why physicsdh so quickly and totally changed his
      opinion about the numbers.

      But it seems to me that
      Xicor is a company that relies on two types of
      engineers, namely sales engineers who must interface with
      the customers, know what they want, know what is
      possible, and communicate with the other class of
      engineers, namely design engineers. How well these people
      perform will largely determine Xicor's future, including
      its stock price, and I believe they have been doing
      very well this past year.

      BTW, a secondary
      offering is a very poor idea if it is meant only to
      improve working capital. Xicor is a company of long
      standing. Such companies, as distinguished from the current
      rash of technical company IPOs, should not be forced
      to run to the capital markets for sustenance.
      Historically such secondaries have been treated with scorn by
      the markets. If Xicor can make a case for a special
      need, in terms of new products, then a secondary might
      be feasible.

    • I have greatly enjoyed this board since it seems
      the most informed and rational of any that I read.
      Thanks to those of you who are thoughtful
      contributors.

      My reaction to Jeff's model numbers was similar to
      that of physicsdh and xicor2000. I didn't like his
      numbers then and I still don't. Basically, as Jeff
      himself admits, his numbers do not assume much progress
      from the company. They assume a continued favorable
      environment and the gains implicit from the structure the
      company has already put in place.

      I would like to
      know why physicsdh so quickly and totally changed his
      opinion about the numbers.

      But it seems to me that
      Xicor is a company that relies on two types of
      engineers, namely sales engineers who must interface with
      the customers, know what they want, know what is
      possible, and communicate with the other class of
      engineers, namely design engineers. How well these people
      perform will largely determine Xicor's future, including
      its stock price, and I believe they have been doing
      very well this past year.

      BTW, a secondary
      offering is a very poor idea if it is meant only to
      improve working capital. Xicor is a company of long
      standing. Such companies, as distinguished from the current
      rash of technical company IPOs, should not be forced
      to run to the capital markets for sustenance.
      Historically such secondaries have been treated with scorn by
      the markets. If Xicor can make a case for a special
      need, in terms of new products, then a secondary might
      be feasible.

    • I believe that all we have so far is the
      potential for significant growth.

      However, in my
      opinion, what is different this time is the change to the
      fabless business model. This will give the company both
      the capacity to deliver increases in sales and the
      cost structure to achieve them without having to
      resort to high priced proprietary products (selling in
      low volumes), as was required at Milpitas to cover
      the costs. The key announcement for me this year was
      actually the 25 cent DCP chip announcement.

      You
      will note that my model results in Post 2604 include
      pretty conservative sales assumptions to come up with
      pretty impressive results, that more than justify the
      current price. I believe that is why the "silent stampede
      continues in the in-bound direction
      unabated". I am sure
      that I am far from the only one who has modelled the
      potential. To date it has not required any great leap of
      faith in dramatic sales growth to justify purchase.


      It is my guess that if they are not able to get on a
      rapid sales growth track the structural improvements,
      which will mean higher profitability on any given level
      of sales, would still get the stock to $20 or so. If
      they can become a growth company, the stock can
      probably do twice as well in this semiconductor business
      cycle (assuming it lasts a couple more years).

    • I was here in 96 too, but I recall it
      differently. First, etched forever in my memory, there was the
      sudden and sharp break in the stock price which occurred
      in the summer, followed by a weak recovery during
      the fall to less than prior heights. It was clear and
      obvious in November to the founder of the Xicor thread on
      Silicon Investor that something was afoot. We were in
      almost daily private communications at the time. We both
      observed the beginnings of the silent stampede for the
      door. He took that as his cue to step aside, a wise
      move retrospectively. I was not so astute.


      History has not even begun to repeat itself in that
      regard. To the contrary, the silent stempede continues in
      the in-bound direction unabated. I think you will be
      seeing the start of coverage shortly. And now some
      famous last words, truse me in this, its really
      different this time.<g>

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