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Xicor, Inc. (XICO) Message Board

  • Easy_Ryders Easy_Ryders Nov 11, 1999 2:39 PM Flag

    I'm out at $8 1/4

    Well, it was a good run for me. Bought in at $4
    and sold at $8.25 for a little more than a %100 gain.
    Not bad, eh? I don't know if it was a dumb move, but
    I was around for the move to $9 last time and it
    sank all the way back to $5.50 I'll be looking for
    another entry point, but I hope for all you longs out
    there, XICO will never look back. Good luck to you all
    and thanks for all the helpful advice, especially
    from PG.

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    • Good post. Your predictions have been uncanny and I hope your right about reaching the all time high for XICO of $25 or so in y2k.

    • Your admonition to be careful and not be too
      greedy is well taken. As one of the Rothschilds several
      hundred years ago was supposedly quoted as saying when
      asked how he made his money, "I leave the last 10% to
      the next guy".

      No one can fault any of us who
      got in near the bottom from taking their profit here
      at 8 1/4, or at 14, when Xicor's stock price reaches
      there.

      However, I am convinced that this semiconductor up-cycle
      is going to last several years, and given the lack
      of recent capacity additions, I believe will be a
      strong cycle. Also, with new management, new products,
      and the structural changes going on at Xicor, I do
      believe this time will be different (famous last
      words).

      It may take awhile for the stock price to exceed the
      10 to 14 range, as it spent alot of time there, and
      presumably a number of investors who bought in that range
      and still have their position, will look to sell out
      and breakeven when those prices are reached. An
      exception to that scenario could occur if some
      extraordinarily good news came out that would cause investors to
      buy all the stock that the sellers offered for sale
      in the 10 to 14 range.

      I believe the earnings
      per share numbers for 2000 recently offered by
      patientgambler of $1.20 to $1.40 (I believe Jeff Bash also
      offered similar numbers before that) are reasonable.
      Applying what I believe is a conservative
      Price-to-Earnings Ratio of 20, in the current market environment,
      to those estimates, gets us to a price of 24 to 28
      sometime within the next year. And that is not even
      considering where Xicor may sell based on 2001 eps estimates,
      which presumably would be even higher assuming a
      several year up-cycle.

      The caveat here, of course,
      is that the overall stock market does not suffer a
      Bear Market. However, I do believe that if Xicor's
      numbers do come through as we are predicting, that
      Xicor's stock price would hold up better than most and
      might even rise in such an
      environment.

      Obviously, Xicor's stock price is not going to go from 8 1/4
      to 24 in a straight line. There will be some
      corrections, pullbacks and shakeouts along the way--some of
      them severe. Just be patient, hang in there, and "Keep
      your eyes on the prize".

    • I'd say this was one of my favorite Warrenisms from way back when:

      http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?board=4687949&tid=xico&sid=4687949&action=m&mid=60
      0


      Congrats on the prescience Warren!

    • I remember when times were bad and you were
      upbeat...looks like you were right. Nearly all of the rotten
      eggs on the board are gone now.

      It seems now we
      have something to really get excited about with the
      stock price up and a unfolding story that gets better
      all the time.

      Keep the faith,
      Long XICO
      Holding

    • Thanks for your comments - don't get me wrong - I
      like Xicor and they will do well. I was one of the
      first to get excited about all of there Mgmt changes
      and hires. I remember someone telling me on the board
      to relax because I was so excited.

      I won't
      be going anywhere for a while. I read an article
      from a big wig with TSMC and he said that the
      downcycle was more severe than the last one. The previous
      downcycle lasted < 12 mos. and this one lasted alot
      longer.

      My opinion is that this upcycle will last
      longer because most of the chip cos. are falling behind
      the curve on capacity. By the time they get the
      capacity it'll be a minimum of 18-24 mos. from now.


      I am in Xicor for the long haul but I'm alittle
      more experienced in going thru a downcycle. Let's just
      say when the industry gets cookin' again I don't see
      anything changing to avoid another down cycle. Supply will
      outstrip demand because of the new capacity.

      Just
      my 2 cents,
      Warren

    • Okay Warren, Here's a view you might appreciate
      coming from Computrade Systems,Inc. Called "Second
      Opinion Weekly" its an automated rating report thats
      available through Waterhouse. This is just a summary of the
      highlights in the report, note the upgrade for Xicor but not
      yet a "buy".

      Reporting on both Atmel and
      Xicor:

      Second Opinion Weekly - XICO
      Close as of week ending
      11/12/99

      NEUTRAL FROM AVOID - UPGRADED

      Score 3 C-Rate
      0.0

      Recommendation
      Stock shows Strongly Improving Conditions. If you are
      short this stock, consider covering or monitor stock
      closely. Stock is Not a Buy Candidate.


      Second
      Opinion Weekly - ATML
      Close as of week ending
      11/12/99

      NEUTRAL FROM AVOID 11/08/99
      Score 4 C-Rate 0.0

      Recommendation
      Stock shows Strongly Improving Conditions. If you are
      short this stock, consider covering or monitor stock
      closely. Stock is an Early Entry Buy Candidate if stock
      closes above 40.40

    • After holding through $14 and watching it go to
      $1 it would be a shame if you miss the really big
      run-up and sell out too soon.

      This company is
      poised to make some large profits with a large base of
      products and many new ones coming out in the near future
      (see web site product selector guide).

      The
      down cycle was a lot stronger than anyone thought and
      perhaps the up cycle will be stronger and last longer
      than anyone thinks now.

      I believe the stock
      will break out above $9 and hit $11 before the end of
      November and will continue to be strong
      thereafter.

      Hope to see you at $65.

    • After reading the ML report I have to agree that
      the semi industry should do well. But let me just say
      that investing in the semi industry has to be done
      with considerable thought and understanding. The
      predictions that everyone is making needs to be toned down a
      little.

      I remember 4 years ago everyone was saying that
      chip sales were going to reach $300 Billion by year
      2000. So everyone ramped up capacity and was going full
      force then the Asian crisis hit and a near recession.


      I believe that for the next year and maybe a half
      that the semi's will do great but after that I would
      be cautious. Xicor should do well but one lesson I
      learned with the recent downcycle is that it can come
      very fast. I will not lose my gains this time. I am
      going to cash out when I feel a slowdown is coming. I
      don't think I could go thru another downcycle and watch
      Xicor go from $14 down to < $1 dollar.

      Long
      Xicor,
      Warren

    • at mid teens in the next 6 months... IMHO

    • I also believe the base price of the stock has moved up. It seems to want to settle in the 8 dollar area now.

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