Now that the dollar is not going away anytime soon, and inflation is not taking off, it sure looks like a "perfect storm" for almost any investment to do well this year. This from a long standing bear.
A pullback is certainly going to happen soon, but don't expect a big drop.
Election years are notorious for doing well, and I see no exception here.
I think wave 3, the nasty deep wave, is not going to be seen for some time to come.
Debt saturation has already happened and the world governments are trying to avert loss of confidence with lenders. It will be stalled but not going to work.
My deflation,depression scenario will happen but most likely not till the very end of this year at the eariest. In the mean time expect yields to rise and talks of over heating to surface. Not a big move but enough to make people think we are once again having a heated economy.
Stocks, gold, wheat, sugar, oil, REITS, bonds should all rise from here over the next 9 months.
I believe the next short term drop will see a sharp rebound which will convince all that everything is well.
If the market holds up till this December I buy a bear hedge fund and watch the money pour in.
After a decade of touting deflation is the end of the world I have changed my stance quite a bit. I see some dramatic cycles appear over the course of the next 8 years that will cause all sorts of havoc on anyone with a rigid dogmatic view of the world.
This year should be a big one for almost all investments, gold included. in fact gold could double from here till end of year.
I see 2013 as one of the worse years for almost everything. It should cause a 30 percent drop in equities and a 50 percent drop in commodities. Deflation will hit very hard, even as people are expecting hyper-inflation.
The moves from there will be dramatic, both up and down, until around 2020.
This is a big departure from my long standing views. I guess people do change.