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PMI Group Inc. Message Board

  • drugsman12 drugsman12 Mar 17, 2008 11:07 PM Flag

    any reason to think 2009 can show a profit?

    I'm beginning to understand that PMI is probably only worth $10/share because 2009 will have big loss too. Hope i'm wrong. Anyone have reason to hope 2009 could show a very small loss (say less than $2/share).

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    • Even PMI doesn't expect to be profitablie in 2008: Donald Lofe: "...we
      expect not to be profitable in 2008."

      From the Q4 Transcript:
      <Q - Robert Gottesman>: But in terms of sharing any information today based on those – the dialogue with the
      community, with the investment community today in terms of what they expect you to do, you mentioned capital
      raising initiatives? Again, I think that people need to know a little bit more information than just we are in dialogue?
      <A - Donald Lofe, Jr.>: We continue to be – we understand your point but as Steve mentioned in his remarks, we
      expect not to be profitable in 2008. That's their expectations as well and they will be looking at I know some of the
      questions forward, your question about 2009, again they had to be satisfied with the forecast and ultimate results in
      2008 and how that will represent itself for the 2009 planning session. So again, we'll be as forthright as we can with the
      information once it becomes available but at this point in time that's what we can communicate to the financial
      community.
      <A - L. Stephen Smith>: A different point that you had asked earlier in the conversation, in my remarks I had
      mentioned the trust balances and captives, a little over 700 million as of 12/31/2007 and you had asked me about a
      peaking of the different books and we had indicated value of 275 million in '08 and '09. Obviously those captive trust
      balances were build and those would also continue to be risk mitigants to total incurred losses as you get out in future
      years as well. So I want to remind you that.
      <Q - Robert Gottesman>: Okay, and again, I would appreciate I don't know when you are having your next
      investment meeting but there is a big disconnect between your book value, your current price and what people think the
      value of your business is in the next couple of years, there is just a very big vacuum. So I hope you appreciate what the
      market is telling you as well.

 
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