Seems that seasonally adjusted these numbers are not that great. FEB was much better than JAN in 2007. So it appears that seasonally you get better numbers in FEB than JAN. So this improvement was expected.
Seems on further inspection of the numbers and I'd appreciate it if someone can clarify my observation... the real turn around of significance is when the cure rate as a percentage of defaults is substantially higher than 100%.
In other words, if you look at the last 13 months of data you have a total of approx 240,000 more defaults than you have cures. If you had defaults come in at say 20,000 and 50,000 of cures then you would be eating into that backlog of defaults and my guess is it would be meaningful to PMI's ultimate paid claims rate which is real cash (hurts) as opposed to reserves which still gives you a chnace to hold out hope. Am I looking at this correctly, thanks.
Drugs, pretty fascinating statistics there...it looks like industry wide in February certificates issued were up a whopping 42% so premium growth across the board might be good and you have to beleive that new business written will be sufficiently profitable which is prob an understatement.
Most interesting though is that Feb defaults were back down to the November time frame which is so so but the cures are up substantially.I would guess that they are getting better as more resources get pushed to cures and I think you may be onto something with January of 08 having hit the bottom. Gonna have to feed my habit tomorrow and take down a little more PMI in the morn.
Great research pal, dont hesitate to share more of that good stuff Mr Drugs.