What is yahoo missing? http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PMI Balance Sheet Total Cash (mrq): 846.48M Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 10.251 Total Debt (mrq): 417.76M Total Debt/Equity (mrq): N/A Current Ratio (mrq): 6.734 Book Value Per Share (mrq): 11.906
They have more cash than debt. They have more cash per share after paying off the debt(if they so chose) then the current stock price. They are trading at 1/5th their book value.
Insiders own a bunch of stock, institutions own the bulk, and shorts are trying to hang on to their 17% short interest.
This looks like it can explode at any point. Their losses are obviously non-cash write-downs which can be undone at the flick of a switch.
To the shorts who might have more insight, what am I missing?
What you are missing in that most of the money on hand is in reserves to pay off mortgages that default. If no more mortgages default then your figures mean something. But as long as more defaults can take place then the figures you give are really meaningless.
You're playing the mortgage market. The short bet is that the giant wave of resets that are projected for the next few years will keep this company underwater. The long bet is that the cure rate is improving, many of these projected resets will or have refinanced, and the wave will not be that strong, or, in the alternative, the government will support the industry.