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GigaMedia Ltd. Message Board

  • doublebagger448 doublebagger448 Nov 20, 2008 2:53 PM Flag

    GIGM going below $2 fast - here is why

    GIGM is in a massive freefall due to concerns that Criterion is closing its fund and/or moving completely to cash. Look at its holdings. It has moved everything to ETFs and cash. http://www.tickerspy.com/member.php?pid=15200&mid=-1282550

    Criterion holds 8.2M shares. If Criterion is selling and if it uses the paper method of filing changes in its >10% positions, it can have 7 days in the market before having to file (being that it is over a 10% holder). To get under 10%, Criterion must sell just under 3M shares. It does not appear to be a coincidence that volume has been high for the last 3 days and the stock is headed straight down. At 30% of the volume traded, 10M shares will have to trade to consume a 3M share sale. Once a holder is under 10%, it can continue to sell shares without further filings. Hence, the smart money smells blood and thinks that Criterion has 8.2M shares to sell before the end of the year.

    Valuation does not matter, nor does cash on the balance sheet. The company will not consider a buyback until Criterion is done selling.

    This stock seems destined to see under $2 and very fast. I would get out of the way and watch out below.

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    • Yeah sev, I don't pretend to KNOW what is happening, but it all sounsd pretty reasoned to me. If they were looking at likely shutting down they would want to be in highly liquid investments so they could close up shop in a day or two, but they still have incentive to be fully invested because cash will do nothing for them vs. if the market comes back by 25% they may be back in business. If the market continues lower, then they lost more of other peoples money. I didn't even look at the list of ETFs, but I am assuming almost any ETF is moreliquid than 8 million shares of GIGM. We'll find out very shortly.

    • ASD, if the truth be known Kut probably hasn't added one share of GIGM to his position. He's probably saying that to dupe posters on the board to buy-up shares like he claims he's doing now. I personally don't believe him.
      His investment stategy is alot like Heez's.
      To HOPE for the best. JMHO

    • Silly ASd, the comment you're responding to wasn't even addressed to you. You really should read more carefully. It seems to be a consistent point with you.

      Once again, if you look back in this thread, I responded to your initial message with an explanation for my misplaced "attack." If you had been on this board as long as I have, you would understand the reason for my comment; whenever GIGM or the market goes through turmoil, the cockroaches pop in to snipe, whine, lament, b_tch and ridicule. Fortunately, we are blessed with the ability to put individuals on ignore, compelling me to read only the "new" jerks here, when they arrive.

      I'm happy and willing to debate with anyone here, regardless of which side of a trade someone takes, regarding GIGM. But, the irrational, senseless BS many post as their argument for why "GIGM is going down" doesn't cut it with me.

      Happy investing. No need to respond.

    • if they are closing up shop, why are they taking on so many new positions?

      http://www.tickerspy.com/member.php?pid=15200&mid=-1282550

      it seems as though they are buying index ETFs in anticipation of a market bottom... if that's the case...

      why are they dumping GIGM at this level?

    • The jist is they don't get to take 20% of returns until they are back in the black, which means they have to work for a long time for peanuts. At some point they figure it is more worthwhile to close shop, return what is left to investors, and start a new venture. This is happeneing market wide at the moment.

    • the reason has been widely reported, here was the first article to come up on a google search:

      http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/aug2005/nf2005088_1711_db042.htm

    • Kosh... I hope you're kidding, or at least speaking'tongue in cheek.'

    • Nice post doublebagger, too bad these guys had to fill the thread with whiny gotcha bs. Anyway, keep it up.

    • kut--

      You have some esteem issues, my friend. I'm not sure where they come from; perhaps from being so wrong so often. But anyone that attacks with sophomoric invective is truly embarrassing, I must say. Go back and read your last post. If you're not embarrassed and ashamed, then you just don't get it.
      You say:
      "Unlike you, the big bad bear market, doesn't cause me to run, weak-kneed and whining to the message boards, to lament about missed "PR opportunities" or "technical signals." Suck it up and put your balls on the line, one way or the other."

      I actually love the "big bad bear market" It gives me opportunity to make a lot of money. It sure as hell beats a sideways market. I put my balls on the line everyday, thank you, and have been richly rewarded because of it.

      So don't sweat it. I'm glad you're comfortable with your investment. Keep breaking every rule in the book too, like averaging down. Just remember, a 50 percent loss requires a 100 percent move to make it back to even. But don't let that deter you. Blind faith --what an investment strategy!

    • your wife doesn't know how much you have lost does she? you really should stop digging the hole deeper and just tell her about it. i've never encountered someone so proud of being so foolish.

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