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Alcoa Inc. Message Board

  • mruyog mruyog Mar 11, 2010 11:05 AM Flag

    Looks Like Sell Off Has Ended

    and sideway action precceding a significant upmove has begun.

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    • I am not denying the fact that it has held up nicely. I'm looking for a entry, but not willing too commit. NO, I am not Mr. Strong Buy like you are. You say it's ready to move up, I say it's in limbo for now. I'm looking for a hard move up or down with volume. That will convince me of the direction. That's when I'm in. That will happen one way or another. That I do know.

    • you do not get it / if dow was down 150 it would hold up better than most, but surely would pull back ... how about down 300? a few weeks ago when the dow was down over 150 it held up well ... down to maybe 12.80 and went green by days end in the market / that was the bottom / so yes ... they were grabbing this stock today when the dow was down 50 ... it did not sink ... it did not settle ... it showed life and bounce ... buddy it is clearly in a tight range ... you do not have a sharp eye ... listen I would tell you to call it the way you see it, BUT you do not see it ... this stock wants to go higher ... BUT needs a reason ... that reason is coming daily ... the ceo is grabbing everyone who will listen and telling them things are improving ... "he can't wait for earnings" / one more things ... the bands are tightening ... the lows are higher and the highs are higher ... this company is a winner ... maybe not the stock today, but there is an old saying ... "buy'em while they are sleeping ... "hold'em" while they are creeping ... sell them while they are leaping ... bud this thing is sleeping ...

    • Look, guys, you must go back to fundamentals: What is Dow30 and how it is related to AA?

      AA is a Dow30 (and also a S&P500) stock. But it's not one of the largest 10 in I guess either Dow30 Or (certainly) S&P500. The Dow30 comprises of chosen large 30 companies that represent the overall U.S. economy. If the general market goes up, it does not necessarily mean that each of the Dow30 stock will go up or vice versa. However, if the industrials included in Dow30 go up, AA generally should go up. To-day, the financials/banks were very strong and moved Dow30 up, but the industrials like AA (and GE) lagged and did not respond in kind. This occurence is normal. The situation with S&P 500 is similar, except that AA forms a much smaller component in S&P500 due to it constituting of 500 companies. I would go a step further and state that when Dow30 moves some 50 points or less, it's more likely that a larger number of stocks in Dow30 may not move up at all and a lot may have gone down. However, if it moves up substantially like 100 points or more, more Dow 30 stocks would move up than when it moves up only 50 points or less. Thus, to tie AA to Dow30 move when Dow30 moves only 50 points or so is simply inappropriate. Thus, forget about knit-picking AA tieup with Dow30 for to-day's action.

      What I saw to-day watching AA on the tape closely and continuously every second for several times a day was that the bid/ask price changed up by a cent mostly when a sizeable trade (100,000 or greater)was added to shares traded, but the price went down by a cent when trades were much much smaller. That was not usually the case yesterday!! To me, it meant that there was manipulation (perhaps by the floor trader or MM or both) and accumulation by influential large buyer(s)!! (I did submit a complaint to-day to SEC for possible manipulation, although I do not think it will do anything because responsible SEC guy may be cosy with Wall Street.) This prompted me to guess that the Wall Street dogs are quietly accumulating which generally is followed up by a significant up move within a week or two. The accumulation activity (by Wall Streeters) may go on for some time before the stock sprints up. This is all my view and that's what I expressed.

    • you call that holding!?It was only down 53 points. What would have happened if the dow was down 150 points. I don't think your holding pattern would've hold up so nicely. You call that strength??!!

    • wrong / it held up when dow was down 50 plus ... it showed strength today ... and looked as if there was a lid on it / it is ok to tell it like it is ... not ok to be so transparently negative / it is clear is in a holding pattern, a trading range ... a mexican standoff ... and a catalyst will make it go north or south ... I hope north ... and the catalyst must cause short covering ... must break solid 14 to create fear ... seems like a long way off ...

      never know ... "in new york minute"

    • thinking it wants to go down, but the dow is preventing that with it going green.

    • thinking what?

    • you must have your rabbits foot 2day. Seriously, it would be nice to see how AA holds under heavy pressure. I haven't seen anything that would contradict that yet. When the Dow started to sell-off at 9:50am, it went w/ it. So, b4 I enter this again, I just need to see how it reacts,when the overall's go down hard. I'm looking for a great entry, but I first have to see more.

      • 1 Reply to deeszznuts
      • Check buy/sell orders at points of large trades and compare to relative price movement. I see indications of quiet accumulation, of course with MM cooperation! This is a sign of reversal from selloff to a potential move up. I also believe that the hedge funds have been moving money from large caps to small caps or lower and underpriced stocks for the last several days. I think, they would be reversing now. Of course, they do so gradually to be unnoticeable. These are my views. If you do not like it, you are free to reject; it doesn't bother me. This board doesn't force anybody to believe other's views. It's just a platform for exchange or expression of ideas. But, thanks for your response.

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