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Alcoa Inc. Message Board

  • PRUDENTCC PRUDENTCC Apr 12, 2010 6:51 PM Flag

    $15 tomorrow

    Didn't cave in the after market. Assuming the whole market doesn't pull back that is.

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    • Futures all point to lower indices tomorrow. Precious metals, commodities, and Asian markets down after Alcoa report. Not good.

    • major sell off !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • $17 is a good price.

    • When will the divedend announcement be? Maybe it will be increased!

    • If you review details of the financial statement, the following is clear:

      1. Compared to 1Q2009, all divisions (except Rolled Products) had significant increases in the production during 1Q2010; i.e., its business improved significantly.

      2. The financial results (bottom line) better than 4Q2009.

      3. Total Liability is lowered during this quarter compared to 4Q2009.

      All in all, it's a significantly better performance indicating good management, although results are not astounding. Therefore, with projected better business in the forthcoming quarters, the company should be showing progressively better profit and lowered liability.

      Thus, I do not see big institutions are going to exit although short-term traders are already rushing to exit. Also, some institutional accumulation is very likely from now. Therefore, the share price should be inching up after selloff by short-term traders. For long-term investors, there should not be any concern because the company is certainly doing better and its business is improving.

      • 4 Replies to mruyog
      • Just as I stated yesterday, short-term traders are exiting as evident from the first ten minutes of trading when 15 million shares were traded. The price jumped up and down between $14.39 and $14.11. Some times it jumped up several cents in a second on large trades!! It's evident that significant institutional accumulation is going on.

        Is it going to crash? Hell, no!! It's all a hype by the short sellers who want it to so. But, they must understand that not the entire investment community is so foolish as to fall into the propaganda trap and will see this as an opportunity to accumulate. The tug of war between the accumulators and short sellers is about even or somewhat in the favor of accumulators so far because the price is holding well above $14. Gist (my interpreation): A good opportunity to accumulate and these shares are likely to keep inching up after the dust settles because, fundamentally, the company and its business are certainly getting better, notwithstanding what the Wall Street idiots say.

      • This is so easy it's criminal. a sweet 2K profit trade in 5 days.

        All I needed for the confirm was the JPM downgrade.

      • Allot of big money was hoping for AA pullback after earnings to ride it up now that aluminum is going up and the one time charges are out of the way; I do see it heading to 15 pretty quick and then moving gradually up. The worst is behind.
        It may not be 18 tomorrow, but it will not be 13 either. AA is not a stock one buys for excitement though!

        Also, think they are managing expectations so when they do hit on their quarter they will build momentum and not trade down on good news next time.

      • seriously, I've never been in a stock where I couldn't get some feel of direction. I am at a lost of the direction at this point and will keep my remaining shares long unless I see something that contradicts that view. I'm glad that someone like you can give a good analysis on the earnings report and have overall beat of the stock. I sure don't.

    • Agreed inline with expectations even after that darn healthcare bill. Not the best news on earth, but it certainly is a good sign. Improvement, fairly priced, guidance is good, and we didn't miss, there is no upset. I think fear of a miss was priced in here.

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