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Alcoa Inc. Message Board

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  • notarethug notarethug May 12, 2010 9:08 AM Flag

    This stock is driving me mad

    I already sold most of mine at 28+ back in the days when there were some hopes of inert anode or carbothermic reduction leading to lower production costs. Now, AA needs Al price above $1.10 for sustained increase of stock price. Not in the cards - too many sources of low cost power in the world to increase Al price above $1 for very long.

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    • AA is no longer primarily an alumina producer, it's now primarily in flat-rolled and engineered products manufacturing for which lower cost of imported alumina would be better. Also, based on revenue, their market is primarily in the U.S.A. and increasingly in the Pacific countries of Japan and South Korea and getting incresingly more in the South America. Thus, it has lowered its portion of business in Europe (if any, it is in Germany and U.K., economies of which are doing better). With projected increased usage of lighter aluminum and aluminum alloys during the current "green" revolution, potential for both its business and profits has certainly got better. Currently, the monkey-action driven stock market is in a hybernation mode for AA. It will have to wake up from that mode in the months ahead.

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