DTMCCUNE3... did you take away any op income guidance for 2013. I got the lower guidance of revenues and the higher run rate of expenses ( primarily due to Attributor ) .... and i also understood the beneficial tax rate in 2013 ( projected to be negative ) due to NOL's gained from Attributor and 2 years of R&D credits. Trying to figure out what impact this all might have on the bottom line? Obviously lower revenues and higher expenses means lower income unless your gross margins are improving but they forecasted those in the high 70's which is consistent with where we are now. Trying to figure out if the tax rate benefit will help mitigate the Op Income risk? It will be very interesting to see how the market reacts to declining revenues in 2013. It really feels like the tipping point is coming and 2013 is the set-up for this but investors never like declining revenues, although it truly feels like timing and point in time? Thoughts ?
They didn't say anyting specific on op inc...except for what you mentioned
We have to keep in mind the tough comp due to the one-time $8m Verance litigation settlement...also keep in mind that DMRC mgt. is very conservative especially since we are in the early innings (bruce's tone on this call was much more upbeat than he usually is...obviously due to the positive trends they are seeing, but probably still tough to put a $ on the discover platform etc.....I think it is also good to keep in mind that the lower revenue in 2013 comment didn't include any additional licensing or royalty contributions...the way they said that it didn't include any royalty revs from IV actually made it sound like it was possible that there could be a contribution in 2013.....even so, I don't think it would be meaningful, but definitely would be a nice surprise...I wasn't expecting a contribution from IV royalties til next year. They are definitely being conservative in relation to the 2nd wave of patents as well....the fact that they are looking to do it themselves I think is a positive bc the players are pretty well known now...anyway whether its late 2013 or in 2014 2nd wave licensing should be significant....also the Nielsen license expires at the end of this year...so there is plenty of upside potential
I think that investors/street are not looking at the Quarterly numbers at this point....I think that they are looking at the potential the technology has and how wide adoption is no longer possible, but probable...the conference calls, press releases, IV updates, etc will have much more influence on the stock in my opinion.
THe numbers that are important are 5-10 years out......probably too hard to model until at least after the next IV update in March, but I guarantee that any ballpark DCF model spits out a stock price a lot higher than the current prices.
appreciate the thoughtful response....that was my feeling as well... they provided no revenue upside and based their lower revenue guidance based on the current flow-thru business... heck, they didn't even really attribute much to the attributor acquisition.... based on the presentation and the dialog during the call they are really starting to fine tune and better articulate the business strategy... talking about the shopping experience from beggining to end, see/ hear and clearly laying out 3 primary stools to the business ( Guardian, Discover and Audience is really compelling and makes it feel much more integrated and focused. I guess if somebody wants to push them around in the ST they can focus on revenue.. no matter to me.. long time holder and not going anywhere... ill just use it as another opportunity to accumulate. Cheers