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Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Message Board

  • Stocksystm Stocksystm Dec 1, 2003 8:56 AM Flag

    The 7 Deadly Sins

    Buyers and holders of homebuilding stocks beware:

    www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2246402

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    • One of the deadliest sins the homebuilder short sellers have made, is confusing the pricing of homes with the pricing of homebuilder stocks. At these levels, the homebuilder stocks don't need increases in home prices to move higher. The large HB stocks such as HOV are gaining market share from the "mom and pops", and are still hugely undervalued. HOV is only selling at 12+ times EPS when you factor in the additional $1/share (or more) that will be reported on Dec 8 (i.e. the newly reported Q ought to have at least $1/share MORE than the corresponding Q of last year).

      Just thought I'd pop in today to say that. Oh look, HOV up another 2.8% today, another new all-time high, ho hum. At least the shorts felt good about themselves over the weekend, before they got another taste of reality. LOL. See ya on Dec 8. I would guess a split on HOV is possible also - look at DHI today, announced a 3/2 pending.

    • Read the article. Full of BS, but very funny that people who concidered themself "professionals" wrote this crap. My 10 year old son can write this with much stronger arguments.

      They even say (again without any arguments) that housing is more riskier investment than stocks. Hundreds of stocks (including large caps, Wall Street darlings) lost 99% in 2000-2002, does it mean that I will be able to get $1 mil house at $10 K someday?

      Agree only with 1st paragraph (anectodal evidences of top). We'll see.

      Another point I noticed. My understanding that Tokio is the only city where house prices declined. I'm trying to read everything on RE, and every time they told about Tokio, never about any USA or Europe city. Why is that? Maybe because Tokio is exception? Maybe because Tokio appreciated 1000% before drop? Someody who knows the answer please reply.

      Split 2:1 around earnings.

    • I am just sitting back and laughing to the bank for now. Yes, it is making me real nervous at this level but until I see a strong pullback, I am holding. I hope it will split after they announce earnings next week.

 
HOV
3.48-0.08(-2.25%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT