An experimental indicator that measures sentiment about SNTKY, as expressed on this board, has hit a much lower level than when the stock was at 1.78 briefly in October. Additonal tax selling could drive the price back to that level.
On a more postive, though pie-in-the-sky, note, I have done some projections on SNTKY, given an upside breakout (3.00) based on the methods discussed by Tony Plummer in his book " The Psychology of Technical Analysis" His methods relate the behavior of dynamical systems, specifically crowd psychology, to the dynamics of price movements in free markets ( stocks, futures, currencies, etc.) Referring to chapter 10, the following price structure could develop from a breakout above 3.00.
A move to 3.00 would generate a target at 5.00 to 5.50. This would be sufficient to generate a breakout on a long-term trend basis. Plummer's projections using the 2.618 factor derived from the Fibonnaci sequence and the logrithmic spirial gives the following price sequence: A move to 10-11, followed by a pull back to 6.50 to 7.00 A move to 16-17, followed by a pull back to 10-11
A possible final move to 25-26, which would complete the sequence.
The timing for the completion of such a sequence could easily be 3-5 years, though Plummer does not give methods for estimating time.
Obviously, such projections at a time like this, with sentiment as low as it is, seem absurd. But contrarian thinking demands putting aside such considerations.
What is interesting to me about the above analysis is that a move to 3.00 would generate a cascade of postive technical events that trigger sucessively higher targets. This kind of activity is typical of non-linear dynamical systems, where a small event can trigger very large outcomes. A bee stings a single animal in a large heard can cause a stampeed. A stain on a woman's dress can bring down a President.
I am interested to see board reaction to this scenario.
Trendliner --- Good theorectical analysis, but this stock badly needs something real in order for it to have reason to go to $3., much less breakout to $5. Got any idea when, if ever, and what, that might be to set your scenario in motion? EMP
1. In the next few weeks see FM buy about 20,000 or 30,000 shares on the open market.2. See sntky secure financing from an investment bank.3.Early february let investors know something about the Osmotic product launch.4. Announcing TC`s resignation and cancellation of options.(Brunes also).5. Next CC will have Q+A around the end of March. Hopefully after the press release for MCA approval.6. Put Trendliner on the BOD!
on chaos theory in physics shows that underlying such systems is an orderliness which our current analytical methods cannot yet uncover. Plummer's work seems to be using the same approach to try to predict crowd reaction in the investment world.
My guess is that we need computer power several orders greater than we now have to be able to get reasonably accurate predictions in any of these systems.
When we can, of course, the stock market as we know it will disappear. If everybody knows in advance what is going to happen there will, by definition, be no risk and no gain or loss.
So, place your bets while you may, ladies and gentlemen!
PS Imagine how history would have been different if Ms Lewinsky had never been born!
Please continue with your posts, trendy - I enjoy them immensely.