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SNTK Message Board

  • trendliner trendliner Dec 12, 1998 11:37 AM Flag

    A New Low in Board Sentiment & Some Wild

    An experimental indicator that measures sentiment
    about SNTKY, as expressed on this board, has hit a much
    lower level than when the stock was at 1.78 briefly in
    October. Additonal tax selling could drive the price back
    to that level.

    On a more postive, though
    pie-in-the-sky, note, I have done some projections on SNTKY,
    given an upside breakout (3.00) based on the methods
    discussed by Tony Plummer in his book " The Psychology of
    Technical Analysis" His methods relate the behavior of
    dynamical systems, specifically crowd psychology, to the
    dynamics of price movements in free markets ( stocks,
    futures, currencies, etc.) Referring to chapter 10, the
    following price structure could develop from a breakout
    above 3.00.

    A move to 3.00 would generate a
    target at 5.00 to 5.50. This would be sufficient to
    generate a breakout on a long-term trend basis. Plummer's
    projections using the 2.618 factor derived from the Fibonnaci
    sequence and the logrithmic spirial gives the following
    price sequence:
    A move to 10-11, followed by a pull
    back to 6.50 to 7.00
    A move to 16-17, followed by
    a pull back to 10-11

    A possible final move
    to 25-26, which would complete the sequence.


    The timing for the completion of such a sequence
    could easily be 3-5 years, though Plummer does not give
    methods for estimating time.

    Obviously, such
    projections at a time like this, with sentiment as low as it
    is, seem absurd. But contrarian thinking demands
    putting aside such considerations.

    What is
    interesting to me about the above analysis is that a move to
    3.00 would generate a cascade of postive technical
    events that trigger sucessively higher targets. This
    kind of activity is typical of non-linear dynamical
    systems, where a small event can trigger very large
    outcomes. A bee stings a single animal in a large heard can
    cause a stampeed. A stain on a woman's dress can bring
    down a President.

    I am interested to see board
    reaction to this scenario.

    Trendliner (the real
    one)

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    • Trendliner --- Good theorectical analysis, but
      this stock badly needs
      something real in order for
      it to have reason to go to $3., much less
      breakout
      to $5. Got any idea when, if ever, and what, that
      might be to
      set your scenario in motion? EMP

      • 1 Reply to Emperical
      • 1. In the next few weeks see FM buy about 20,000
        or 30,000 shares on the open market.2. See sntky
        secure financing from an investment bank.3.Early
        february let investors know something about the Osmotic
        product launch.4. Announcing TC`s resignation and
        cancellation of options.(Brunes also).5. Next CC will have Q+A
        around the end of March. Hopefully after the press
        release for MCA approval.6. Put Trendliner on the BOD!

    • on chaos theory in physics shows that underlying
      such systems is an orderliness which our current
      analytical methods cannot yet uncover. Plummer's work seems
      to be using the same approach to try to predict
      crowd reaction in the investment world.

      My guess
      is that we need computer power several orders
      greater than we now have to be able to get reasonably
      accurate predictions in any of these systems.

      When
      we can, of course, the stock market as we know it
      will disappear. If everybody knows in advance what is
      going to happen there will, by definition, be no risk
      and no gain or loss.

      So, place your bets while
      you may, ladies and gentlemen!

      PS Imagine how
      history would have been different if Ms Lewinsky had
      never been born!

      Please continue with your
      posts, trendy - I enjoy them immensely.

      Have a
      good weekend Lymey.