What else would explain all the weirdness this week, Barclays putting their foot in the mouth and calling ILMN seq a competition and then heavy buy side volume yesterday and today(a market down day).
haha, that's how you conclude there will be a takeover on Monday? Could happen, but I don't buy it at all. People have been saying takeover since this stock dropped under $10 and it never happens and I don't believe it will. Most experts agree that Affymetrixs` line of products are already lagging behind others and could be in serious trouble of being outdated 2-4 years down the road. This is not very attractive to the big companies. Why would you buy a company whose products don`t have good long term prospects? The rebound we saw on Thursday was just a technical move - what do you expect after a stock drops 15% based on one Barclay's analyst comments.
I have to agree with Stacey here. IF there is a buyout, it will be more likely a "hostile buyout" and not something where King and Co. are deciding to call it quits. And I think there is a less than 10% chance it happens "by Monday". As a long-shot best case scenario, I'd label it as "it could possibly happen".
Last year, Affymetrix bought platform technology (however rudimentary) for $25MM which will hopefully get them into the sequencing part of the business (at least that was their expressed reason for buying True Materials).
As well, last year, they inked partnerships with several different companies; here is a link to some of the names:
Not only that, but Affymetrix has agreements with some of the companies which manufacture and distribute the reagents and solvents used for the genetic testing processes (the REALLY costly part of lab testing). So, they have about as many "fingers" into this business as they possibly could.
Considering all of that, does that sound like Affymetrix is ready to "pack it in and call it a day"? It doesn't sound like a company which is looking for a buyout to me.
THE DRIVER of the stock behavior which we've seen this week is NOT Barclays. They're just the messenger-boy. But the message which Barclays sent IS important.
It has been whispered on this MB (and probably in other places) since last year that ILMN has been "eating AFFX's lunch" because Affymetrix missed a technology / product cycle and was in dire jeopardy of missing out on the next big development in the genetics business (as a revenue generator); that being gene sequencing / DNA sequencing.
This week, people stopped whispering it on message boards and you finally had someone saying it (or writing) out loud in a published format. What Illumina has done is significant not because they produced another system which will perform sequencing, but because their new system REDUCES THE COST FOR LABS TO DO THAT SEQUENCING. Genetics lab work for as low as $1,000.00! THAT is the significant breakthrough of this HiSeq_2000 thing.
Truthfully, for me, it is sad to watch Affymetrix tread this miserable path which they are on. Steve Fodor is no less than a pioneer in this field; at one time this company was great! And to watch this company stumble from one miserable earnings report to another, and get shorted to Hell for months and months is pure agony. For investors which like the company it becomes unbearable at some point.
AFFX and Affymetrix have become a hated stock and company. They can't seem to really recover here. To me, it's a terrible thing, because I don't think it's a bad company at all.
But I do have to admit that they made a crucial error (missing out on a sequencing system) at a very bad time (economically). They just seem to be riddled with mistakes at the moment.
I don't know how "fixable" their problem is. Does anyone know if the Axiom system will do DNA sequencing? Does it incorporate the True Materials technology which they bought? I have been asking that question to the company, but they have not bothered to answer it?
If they want to survive (ultimately) they are going to have to get moving in the sequencing game and compete. And whatever sequencing solution they put forward will now have to be cost effective enough to compete with this HiSeq_2000 system.
And that may not be a very easy task....
JUST A TECHNICAL MOVE?
Gimme a BREAK. It may not be takeover, but it is more than a technical move. A tech rebound would have stopped at 5.75 and then would be treading water again. This thing wants to see higher prices in a hurry.
BUTT ler is probably posting here...in disguise...hahaha
Guys, no takeover today, big surprise there, haha, but this is all irrelevant. My solid technical analysis suggests that AFFX is about to break out big time. I am seeing the formation of a right-triangular bottom along with an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. The combination of these two trends/shapes is an overwhelmingly Bullish signal. I repeat, an overwhelmingly Bullish signal. Fundamentals don't matter when you have technicals that are this strong and solid. So buy more before you miss it!
Is your hat on too tight? I have never had any connection to Illumina in any capacity. Listen to some JJ Cale and drink a mararita made with Patron Silver. Maybe this will allow you to lighten up a bit.
Volume was huge all week. Yesterdays up volume exceded the Bs from Butler sell volume the day before.
This thing goes to 8-11. You don't get a spikes like that on down -100 days. Some news about to be released.