Nephros, Inc. Message Board

BCRX, and SMED doing well. Bought ILMN puts, they will report after close, most likely poor guidance...

Dragan,

Must be the "great minds" phenomenon :) I closed out 1/2 of my position in DDSS at just about the same time yesterday. Dr. A made the right call on this one but I still think I end up in the black (if only by a penny or two) on this trade before the end of the current quarter.

Speaking of great minds, anybody else think the market is a bit funky at the moment? Take a look at CAT, for example. The "news" is rolling layoffs, plant shutdowns, weak 3rd quarter sales and UP almost 5 bucks at one point today??? Still bullish on NEPH, obviously, but I'm 70% cash at the moment. Think I'll sit on the sidelines and enjoy the view for a day or two...

TD

To all HGSI holders...upgraded at thinkequity

Theo,

That's the way I play this game. Make money with swing, and day trading on hype, and crowd sentiment. And, yes sometimes get the hit, like DDSS. FDA drug casino is unpredictable, at the best you can try to put odds in your favour. After DNDN I got all of my medical "logic" out through the window..... Market is brutal, doesn't care who you are, and what you know, market is ultimate humbling place.There are quick, and there are dead...Doing own FA, TA, and DD is "a must" even for quick trades...

I am not saying that my strategy is the best, and the only, I am saying what works for me. I am a trader, not investor ( except BVX holding over 4 months, which is really long for me ). There are many other ways to make money......

I have been in NEPH about three times, and now playing with "house money". This time will hold till the end, and add some on "dips", or at the time of blowing through 52 wks high..

Med devices are giving better odds than drugs. I am really loaded with BVX, and this one will make either very happy, or very unhappy. Odds are on my side, still nothing for sure with FDA, and playing with money that I can afford to lose....

Goo luck

Dragan

Interesting how these things go, isn't it? I followed the exact same strategy on HGSI except...I put my profit back in play AH on Friday and let it ride figuring worse case was break even. As fate would have it, I ended up with my single biggest gainer of the year! FYI, I now hold more than 10 times as many shares in NEPH and I would be THRILLED with a mere 1/10 of the gain.

TD

dragan...

I know about lupus, an autoimmune disease of vessels, which can lead to renal failure..

but realize...

the prevalence of lupus is 28 in 100K
the prevalence of dialysis requiring ESRD is 215 per 100K...that's 8X more people requiring dialysis than lupus...

my point is the money is where the money is...

the lupus drug, is worth more only because of the cost of the drug...
filters are likely cheap relative to the drug...

but the specifics of improvement haven't been discussed, only stat. significant results were found.

NEPH decreases mortality for the 218/100K by 20-30 percent...that affects many many more people...and yet the pr for neph has been abysmal.

kudos to lupus sufferers...btw, autoimmune diseases are horrible...

but so is ESRD...which is nearly always fatal...eventually.

Pee,

Lupus ( SLE ) is very serious disease, and one of the causes for ESRD, and renal transplant. Also, lupus did not have any new med for almost 50 yrs, and this is big. That's why such big pop up. Who could predict that, easy after the battle to be armchair general......

I would "accept" 50% pop on 52 wks high.....

Good luck

Dragan

Dr A...all the big players were stating "dont hold your breath". The chances of a new lupus treatment was 50/50 at best with most stating 80% no go. I looked into it and saw some hints from PRs and interviews but still..so I rode the wave for 2 days wed and part of thurs and made some very nice change. Hindsight is 20/20 which is why I eagerly congratulated the HGSI folks for having the fortitude that I didn't.

PS. I heard that if HGSI had a positive Monday then 10 ps easy with some saying up to 20....beware of the ss HGSIers though (styarting tomorrow)..they'll be looking to get into the action

LOL...

I wish NEPH would get 1/2 the percentage gain HGSI did!!

Ironically...with 20-30% improvement in MORTALITY!! among a disease that is much more common than Lupus (ESRD) it should be more important!

I guess having a .ob after the ticker doesn't help!

That 20-30%, though, is really big in medicine...and I can't believe NEPH hasn't gotten more press!

I agree. I attempted to research Nephros' competitors for water filters used in hemodialysis. While a number of companies make water purification systems, as best as I can tell, the only company that makes a filter similar to Nephros is Minntech Corp. - a public company that does very nicely. It got its water filter cleared by the FDA back in 1998. That is the technology Nephros pointed to as being the "substantial equivalent" in its 510(k) application for its DSU filter. (Identification of a "substantially equivalent" technology is required by FDA regulations to get 510(k) clearance for a medical device).

I have no idea if Minntech's water filter complies with the new amendments to AAMI/ANSI standards.