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Whiting Petroleum Corp. Message Board

  • tarponman61 tarponman61 Aug 4, 2013 5:04 PM Flag

    Analysts

    I wonder how often analysts update their estimates. Whiting's earnings were out over a week ago, and the Yahoo estimates are currently for 89 cents for Q3. With the info WLL gave out, it seems to me that the estimates should be a lot higher. Either there is a serious time lag for estimates to be posted or the analysts are clueless (maybe both).

    Right now, I'm modeling Q3 earnings at $1.20-1.50, based on what the price of crude does. My calculations use Q2 expenses, production, and differentials as the baseline, with expectations of similar expenses and production with slightly higher differentials for Q3. The sale of Postle should save 7-10 cents/share in interest expense alone. The price of crude in July was about $10 higher than the Q2 average. With 50-60k bopd able to take advantage of that price uplift, that should add 12-15 cents for just the month of July.

    If WTI averages mid 90's for August and September, WLL should easily make $1.20. If WTI remains elevated around 105, WLL should earn around $1.50. To break it down another way, each day that WTI hangs around 105, WLL will get approximately one half cent more in Q3 earnings than it did in Q2. Well costs are going down too. I look for WLL to hit $60/share by the end of the quarter.

    I don't expect WTI to remain this high, but believe it will settle into a new range of 95-105 due to the low Brent/WTI spread. The economy can tolerate crude at this level because gasoline prices are based off Brent.

 
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