We should see a bump in earnings this quarter as previous tax provisions are reversed due to the extension of the high tech supplier designation for another 5 (?) years. This could be up to 5c of EPS in this quarter. Full year earnings should go up to 67-69c (up from forecast 62c). That should pop us to $4-$4.20 given current PE ratio.
The problem is the first couple of months of Commerical Vehicle sales and production in China has been very disappointing after a nice bottom had been found in Q4 last year. While initially it looked good in Jan (favorably monthly comparision due to timing of Chinese New Year), February really disappointed, and the joing Jan/Feb number was abismal. That statistic is probably what will drive this stock moving forward. If the March number also disappoints, then we are going to see $3.00 sooner than we see $4.50, despite the very cheap valuation on this stock.
That said, hopefully we can continue to see free cashflow coming through and a decrease in receivables. They did a good job of that through the first three quarters of the year.