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iShares MSCI Japan Message Board

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  • princetontiger88 princetontiger88 Nov 26, 2009 9:04 PM Flag

    I am surprised how cheap Japanese companies are

    How do you find the value of the Japanese market?

    How many points on the Nikkei equals $1 trillion?

    I know the S&P 500 roughly means, 1 point = ~8.8 billion (from the S&P factsheet data... just divide total value by total points)

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    • Guys,

      I agree wholeheartedly!
      I am not long ANY Japanese ADRs, YET. But I am pretty sure that the Nikkei is at an absolute bottom right now. According to my calculations, the Nikkei is 12 times cheaper than it was at the Nov 1989 peak, adjusted for Yen deflation. Bear Markets almost never last more than 20 years. The Nikkei is exactly as cheap as the DOW was in 1949 and 1982, the exact moments before a raging bull market began.

      During 1982 and 1949, people never wanted to buy equities again, so the bull market surprised EVERYONE.

      Fast Forward today, Even the Japanese themselves are Mostly buying foreign equites at this moment in time, not domestic Japanese ones.

      The Yen has returned to its 1970 level before the bull market began, the last time.

      The ONLY thing I can't figure out is why the Japanese ADRs look so expensive on the NYSE, if the Nikkei is low. Is it because of the high yen?

      Does this mean that Toyota is really a $1000 stock in disguise?

      Good luck.

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