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ВСЛК Message Board

  • goin4thegoldin03 goin4thegoldin03 Feb 14, 2005 7:42 PM Flag

    Captain.....

    Have been following vclk very closely since the 4's... ONE TERRIFIC STOCK (and board thanks to LM and a couple of others) I do not recall seeing your name before (of course I could have missed it) Please tell, when did you discover, and how, and come "on board"?

    Also, I am fascinated by the gyrations (sp?) of vclk over the past several days.... Unbelievable.... As you said, the stock has deliberatly been driven down.... That is clear....As I am still a novice, would you please be kind enough to explain how.???...I presume large short interest ( as ast said deep pockets shorting, but they had to know something, if they are going long soon, as he said, or they could lose it as fast as they made it, on bad earnings......)...... but am not clear on it....still learning.... Quite fascinating....i.e. please Captain, or someone with more experience, explain how the price was so manipulated.............

    Yes these guys should be reported as LM said, but not now.....A few of us have the hang of this stock, and I, for one am just "stealing back" what the wall street crooks stole from my vanguard funds........

    Thank you kindly, should you, "captain or someone be good enough to share.

    LOOKING FORWARD TO FRIDAY.........GO VCLK


    Goin4broke.....one dumb (but persistent) gal from Pa.

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    • How is the stock manipulated? Market makers with large blocks of stock can drive the price down by selling at strategic times. This usually happens before earnings if they know the earnings are going to be great. This will scare the little investors out of their stock and blow right through stop losses. Another way this is done is if a rating company as missed out on a run up on a stock. Then a downgrade will occur so they can drive down the stock price and get in on a ride they missed. So don't pay too much attention to the up or down grades. What drives the price of a stock are two very important variables: Market share and Revenue growth. It a company has increasing market share and increasing revenue growth, they get and A and the stock keeps going up. Look at MSFT, INTC, PETM and a handful of other stocks that had major run ups when they were capturing market share and had explosive revenue growth. VLCK has increasing market share and explosive revenue growth. They should be rated an A and they currently have S&P's highest rating, a Five Star. The company has a relatively small float, 74.3 million shares. This gives room once the stock runs for splits. As the revenue growth and market share increase, the stock price should increase and after a certain point, probably when the price is in the $70's, the stock will split and the float will increase. Because the float is not very large, the big block trades can drive the price up or down depending on which direction market makers want the stock price to go. But, the manipulation can only last so long. Because what counts is fundamentally is the revenue growth and market share. These are the real numbers that matter. At the end of the day, what matters is the numbers. Companies either make their numbers or they don't. While it is silly that these numbers somehow become "relevant" every three months, that is the system we have, so we are stuck with it. What really matters is over a couple of years, is the company capturing market share and increasing their revenue? If the company is exceeding expectations and keeps knocking down the numbers, the price of the stock is forced up by supply and demand. Very few companies are able to exceed earnings estimates quarter over quarter and increase market share. VLCK is one of those very few companies. INTC, MSFT and PETM all had their run as their revenue kept crushing expectations and their market share kept increasing. After the market has been saturated and revenue slows, the stock price either levels off or goes down. This is why certain companies' stock quits increasing. Look at Starbucks, SBUX, Home Depot, HD, WalMart WMT and numerous others.

      What you have to ask as investors is, what alternative investment is going to increase in value more then this one? Is is real estate? Bonds? REITS? CD's? Other stocks, index funds? Gold? And after you compare these investments you have to decide if dollar for dollar is this your best investment. I think it is and am long several thousand shares. I also bought the $12.50 calls for February and sold the $12.50 puts. When the stock runs I will sell covered calls. I already sold the $15.00's for this month and somebody was stupid enough to give me their money. Thank you by the way. There is no way this stock will close above $15.00 come options expiration date, Friday. If it does I will dance naked on Wall Street. And that is a promise.

      Captain Sancho

      But I am Sancho, I have these gifts. You are not Sancho.

    • It seems VCLK always gets near $12.50 when options are a few days away.........any comments please

      • 1 Reply to cpqasthp
      • Eventually there is likely to be a step change....and it'll seem like $15/share is the new magic # that VCLK will hover around at options expiration dates.....that's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

        As somebody previously said, it is a white knuckle period.......but this pattern of 'manipulation' has been persistent with VCLK.

        Long term hold in my opinion. GO vclk!