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ValueClick, Inc. Message Board

  • deckard0999 deckard0999 Feb 25, 2006 10:43 AM Flag

    Fundamental estimates for earnings

    Hi there,

    I am wondering what realistic results we can expect given either scenario.

    It is unlikely that VCLK will severely miss their target. Whether it is likely that they will surpass it let's assume that there are three options:

    1. It will miss it by a cent.
    2. It will be on.
    3. It will surpass it by a cent.

    I have the idea that it will increase to about 20-21 by the end of the week if it is #2.

    I have the idea that it will increase to 24-26 by the end of the week if it is #3.

    However I have little idea as to what would happen given #1. I do not believe it will fall below 17. Am I incorrect in this estimate?

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • For this stock to move, it will require an earnings surprise on the upside. We're talking 3 more cents about censusus to move the way you're describing (into mid-20's).

      • 1 Reply to longhorninchicago
      • For this stock to move, it will require an earnings surprise on the upside. We're talking 3 more cents about censusus to move the way you're describing (into mid-20's).
        ----------------------------------
        oh I don't know , I think some enthusiastic guidance should suffice in continuing our upward trend, but an earning surprise, and good outlook should surely induce a spike..

    • I think you are wrong. They will beat estimate of .13, probably by 2-4 cents. however, this wont matter. What will matter is guidance and entusiasm. If guidance is conservative and enthusiasm tempered than we will not see much of an increase. gonna be exciting on Monday after market either way. If up, longs will reap their rewards. If down, those hoping to go long will be able to pick up shares on the cheap.

    • (I'm posting on a Saturday! gasp!!! Rain is killing off all my baseball practices today)

      Your scenarios leave out where VCLK has a 25% earnings surprise, or even higher! Look at the history...mgmt is OVERLY conservative, and yet analysts still don't seem to grasp that fact.

      I say again, I EXPECT .16/sh...at most .18/sh.

      Add in upped guidance for '06 (remember all those conferences coming up?). Also, they should have a good idea of Q1...so they could up guidance seeing how much better Q1 is already going over planned.

      Expect good things Mon night...even better things Tuesday!

      Go VCLK...26/46 in '06

      • 1 Reply to LMcKenna
      • ValueClick (nasdaq: VCLK - news - people ) is set to report fourth-quarter earnings on Monday after the closing bell. The Wall Street consensus calls for earnings of 13 cents per share on revenue of $116 million, compared with year-ago earnings of 16 cents on revenue of $54 million. Piper Jaffray reiterated a "buy" rating on the stock on Feb. 21. "We would be buyers of ValueClick shares ahead of its earnings report on Feb. 27," the firm said. "Our recent channel checks as well as the solid results from the online advertising companies in the fourth quarter suggest that there is upside to fourth-quarter estimates."

 
VCLK
21.500.00(0.00%)Jan 27 4:00 PMEST