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ВСЛК Message Board

  • jweinmann67 jweinmann67 Jun 6, 2006 1:02 PM Flag

    Thanks LMCK for Dec call suggestion

    Hi all,

    Still lurking around even though I have not re-established a position in VCLK. If you recall I rode from $9 last May until $18 this past month, and sold after I was furious with earnings performance.

    I hate to say it, but Buckie was right all along... although it was PURELY coincidence. Fundamentals are still strong... as far as Buckie's $14.75... the sun even shines on a dog's ass some days.

    I think VCLK will break below $15 on the very next 200 point drop for the Dow... sometime in June or early July... so I don't want to be long here.

    LMCK I am all over your options call earlier... decided to buy a lowly 10 contracts and just sit on them and wait. If VCLK management finally pulls their heads out of their asses, I might get an opportunity to exercise the calls as opposed to selling them... but I still maintain that $26 in '06 is just impossible. If this issue sees $20 I think shareholders should be VERY happy, all things considered.

    At any rate... I will also suggest to the board that DTAS is AN EASY 11% gain for you all in less than 30 days if you want to ride the $12.60 price today up to $14 by months end and swing out again.

    Also, you are NEVER going to get a better buying opportunity for OVTI (cell phone camera chips) or for TSM (chipmaker fabbing for OVTI and many others) than you are right now.

    TSM will be $11 by July / August, and OVTI will be $40 - $50 by year end. Do your own due diligence... but these plays are like PRINTING MONEY. Easy stuff.

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    • ""but I still maintain that $26 in '06 is just impossible.""

      if you would have lived through the past 3 years, you would have thought in june of 05 that 21 was impossible.

      That the o4 high was impossible.

      And every prior years high along with it, as you are basing your decision on the pps action. You even said fundamentals are strong, earnings are still growing, and margins are still excellent.

      You will be wrong by years end, but we won't hear how wrong you were then.

      • 1 Reply to turbineflyer2000
      • Turbine,

        I will GLADLY eat crow at year's end if I am wrong. I do not profess to be an expert at anything except recognizing the obvious.

        I HOPE that I am wrong. Seriously. I am no Buckie. I can't hold a candle to the knowledge many of you on this board possess... I hope I did not sound like a know-it-all.

        HOWEVER... I have been a little shocked at some of the longs ability to ignore the writing on the wall during the past several months. I mean how much more obvious could the price action have gotten? Really!

        If you are long... I am just STUPIFIED why you would have gone down with the ship from $18 to $15 this past month. STUPIFIED ! I sold my last 1,000 shares at $18, paid my long term gains... and reinvested that $18,000 in short term trades over the past month netting several thousand dollars. When VCLK is done being punished (and rightly so)... I will buy my shares back at $14 and change.

        I saved myself $3 - $4 per share in losses, and grew my capital while I watched VCLK take the pounding that was so obviously coming. Earnings for the past 2 quarters have SUCKED DUDE... I mean REALLY SUCKED.

        Any tech growth stock needs to maintain 25% OR MORE in NET GROWTH quarter over quarter to justify a PE over 30. Growth has obviously slowed, and the fact that Q4 had NO UPSIDE whatsoever... that was a HINT and a HALF that growth is slowing, acquisitions are being integrated with less economies of scale than originally hoped... I mean come on, they usually beat Q4 by 20% to 35%... to come in AT estimates was disgusting... and the punishment is not over... this market correction will ensure that this punishment is far more severe than would normally be the case.

        Down into the 14s and then hopefully a slow rise to 20 by year end... but for me, I will ONLY play options, unless this hits the 13s. Absolutely NO SENSE tying up my investment capital in this over-diluted piece of shit until growth returns.

        The anticipated stock option expenses for this year are freaking sick, man. Look at DTAS and TFSM and AQNT and many other companies in the same industry... between 2 cents and 4 cents ANNUALLY in options expense. VCLK is expensing at least 2 cents PER QUARTER.

        YAY !!! I want 20% of our NET EARNINGS to be wasted on options expense. Don't get me started... VCLK mngmnt got WAY ahead of themselves and fucked up badly.... I am still more than pissed this was only a 1 bagger for me, and not a 2 bagger by end of year. It all could have been avoided with smarter management.