There "seems" to be a "possible" trend as to when a SPO occurs. If you notice below, a SPO has followed the ex-divy date each of the last three divys, with the most recent occurring on the same day.
Now I know this is not science, but one "could", IMO, infer that a SPO may be about to occur. The big question is when. Days after the ex-date or on the same date as the ex, is anyones guess. Personally, I think we are due for an SPO and seemingly "may" occur this month.
JUL. ?: EX DATE
JUN. 7: DIVY NOTICE FOR A JULY DIVY PMT.
APR. 4: EX DATE
MAR. 9: DIVY NOTICE FOR A APRIL DIVY PMT.
FEB. 9: SPO OF 20 MILLION SHARES PRICED AT $12.35 (ABT 2 MONTHS AFTER EX DATE) SP CLOSED AT $12.70
DEC. 9: EX DATE
DEC. 9: SPO OF 10 MILL SHARES AT $12.46 (SAME DAY AS EX DATE) SP CLOSED AT $13.18
DEC. 3: DIVY NOTICE
SEP. 20: SPO OF 10 MIL. $12.95 (4 DAYS AFTER EX DATE) SP CLOSED AT $13.87
SEP. 16: EX DATE
SEP. 9: DIVY NOTICE
JUN. 30: SPO OF 10.925 MIL SHARES AT $12.50 (6 DAYS AFTER EX DATE) SP CLOSED AT $12.66
JUN. 24: EX DATE
It helps to understand the reason for an SO. A well managed reit (which I think CYS is) should only do it when it represents a long term gain for the shareholder. Recently CYS had two good reasons to do SO's; and they said so in the CC. One; to improve their efficiency (more money being managed for the same fee); two because an increase in the long rates provided them an opportunity to invest in higher paying loans. Right now, long rates have fallen; that makes it unlikely we will have another SO in the near future. Reits that have done SO's lately might be suspected of doing them for "bad" reasons (like to support a too big dividend).
When QE2 ends late this month, long rates may go higher. If so many of these reits will be doing SO's.
My thinking is that IF they may do an SO later this month, why not wait to BUY? I'm thinking that the share price will go down once they announce it. And that will be an opportunity to get into this stock on the cheap.
ARR did that last week and the share price tanked .40, which was a gift to me. I bought and the share price quickly recovered. Now I get that appreciation AND the divvy too.
But that's just my thoughts on this.
Am waiting to buy...
THANK YOU... your post really made the entire concept make sense to me. Sorry I couldn't remember who you were, if I had, I would have just linked to your original post.
If repeating or paraphrasing that informative post offends some I guess I'll say that's too bad for them.
Good luck to all...
Rocco, It must have been a good example if swamprat remembered it too. :)
You mentioned that you got it from another poster, so clearly not plagerism, even if you couldnt directly quote the source.
Thanks for sharing that, it makes more sense to me now too!
This is my original candy bar post, thanks for trying to give me credit, glad the idea makes sense to many...Tom