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Vail Resorts Inc. Message Board

  • deepharbor deepharbor Mar 8, 2007 11:58 AM Flag

    What the frick is going on

    these guys reported eps on march 13th last yr 1.12, analyst estimates are now for 1.11, I'm guessing blowout numbers and some type of announcement.

    somebody is pushing this thing pretty hard

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    • Maybe Henry Kravis is back :-)

    • tadbrk-

      Vail isn't just commercial real estate, but it does have quite a bit of it.

      Looking just at the Lodging part of the business, not the real estate sales, management, or retail commercial properties.

      The Lodging business had revenues of 156 million last yr.
      what is that business worth??

      Looking at some other lodging companies this is where they trade on a price/sales basis

      Hot 2.3x
      FS 12.3x (no kidding)
      oeh 4.5x
      DRH 2.8x
      WHX 2.3x

      I've never been able to understand FS, I've been short the stock in the past, not lately, and have always lost money. I would argue that MTN's real estate is more like OEH's specialized properties then the others comps above which are largely more traditional but if we use a conservative 3x revenues that puts a value on the lodging properties of going on half a billion dollars alone.

      Note that doesn't count the 260mm real estate held for sale, the commercial retail properties, the golf courses, the Arribell or the lodge @vail chalets (the later two were forcast to have forward cap x from Summer of 06 of 325-375mm)

      And of course it ignores the value of the Ski resorts

      Having said all that I'm surprised the stock has had such a metoric rise this year, valuation alone I don't think can account for that. Is there a buyout comming, or is it just hedge fund money, maybe leon black is back??

    • Most intelligent and civil conversation I've seen between two folks with differing views anywhere on yahoo! boards in years. <tips hat>

      Like deepharbor, I too am long MTN since Oct 06 originally and I too am confused about what's going on. I attribute it to speculation. But it is working in my favor, so I'm not complaining.

      Like tadbrk, I too short stocks from time to time, but there's nothing here that would encourage me to even think about it with MTN at this point - given the buyout potential. There's nothing fundamentally wrong that I can determine.

      Yeah, the buyout has been hyped a little by CNBC, but hey, they're just guessing.

      MTN should be reporting soon. The way things have been going with market reaction to earnings reports, this should provide another buying opportunity (or covering opportunity) regardless of the actual results reported. ;-)

      • 1 Reply to kctrain
      • Easy to see both sides. Aron the Ops/Brand/Market guy is gone and the Wall Street transaction guy is in charge? Intrawest picks up Mammoth and then Fortress picks up Intrawest. Definitely doesn't seem like there's a go-it- alone management team in place right now. On top of that, they've been LBO'd a couple tmes already. And similar to SHLD... retailer or a hedge fund; MTN sometimes looks more like a REIT than a resort operator. I guess it's whatever drives the growth. But if there's a buyout then I wouldn't expect that they'd be adding debt in the most recent qtr, buying back shares or sowing the steady stream of insdier selling. But time will definiteyl tell.

        Cheers!

    • completely different thing... Vail Resorts is mostly managing these properties at the end of the day (and selling incremental tickets and food); as far as future cash flow is concerned). If it were selling commercial property with tenants in place or doing a sales/leseback or something then cap rates may apply.

      Appreciate your view.

      By the way, at some point MTN is going to have to pony up for parking. Oddly enough, alot of these projects offer no parking or 1 space for every 2 units. The Lions Head day lot project keeps getting pushed out.

    • oh, the 186 isn't a prediction, in the low 60's all else unchanged I'll be lightening up.

    • commercial property cap rates, before the blackstone deal 4% after the blackstone EOP deal are now 3%,

      Maybe those valuations are to high I don't know, MTN isn't exactly all commercial but a 3% cap rate puts the stock at 186,

      if you want a good short, and have cohones take a look at POT, it's hyped all over by the ethenol business, trading at 16-17x ebitda, 27x trailing eps, company gave guidence for EPS to grow at 5-22% next year, some range, analyst average predicting growth of eps of 12%.

      good luck in your trading, time alone will tell

    • I'm shorting a bit more myself. just got back from Vail. seemed a bit slow to me with rapidly deteriorating snow. both Lionshead and the Village continue to be major contruction sites and will continue to be thru at least 2010. parking still a major issue; and both Westin Riverfront (in BC) and Ritz (Vail) have yet to sell out at lower $/sf. And, as someone pointed out a few days back; pine beetles noticeably browning-out alot of trees on the mountain. Property taxes on the way up after many years as well. Not sure where any big earnings surprise is going to come from?

      • 2 Replies to tadbrk
      • Did you bother to listen to the 1st quarter CC before you jumped in and started shorting this rocket??

        Where will the upside surprise come from, from the 1st q CC

        Season pass sales yr/yr as of 12/11/2006 up 27%
        Marketing bookings yr/yr up 15% in room nights up 24% in dollar revenue.

        Now those numbers were early in the booking season, were they a leading indicator, did sales end up an even higher percentage?? Anything in the double digits is a blow out.

        Real estate revenues up DRAMATICALLY yr/yr

        Vail Mtn club sales were already at 15mm with a total possible sales of 67mm by my calculation 150 full time at $250k plus 300 at $100k

        Non of this counts in sales for Vail Chalets $2,400 a square foot
        Gore Creek sales

        Arribel
        Crystal Creek

        And of course they were busy marketing Rum Key at the Miami Boat show in Feb, apt to get some feedback on that little baby.


        Anybody get to ski the 8 fricken feet of powder at Heavenly,

        message of the market telling you this is going higher, faster. Looks like a perfect cup and saucer, expect IBD to be out pushing this puppy up as it registers a new 52 week high with a major price break out.

        but if you thought things were a little slow at Vail the day you were there, and you thought the snow was melting, tabrk???



        This thing has run so far I would consider selling some out of the money calls to lock in some of my 37% since November but there are no out of the money calls I can find.

      • I just got back from Vail and it was packed. 21,000 skiers on Saturday the 3rd. Supposedly that was one of the busiest ever.

 
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