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Vail Resorts Inc. Message Board

  • philiplaurenson@sbcglobal.net philiplaurenson Aug 8, 2008 12:38 AM Flag

    downhill with speed

    O.K.I fully admit that I am short this stock, and indeed profitably. But here is the issue-for the last month I have been trying to short more-but I keep getting rejected on borrowing more shares. Now, I am small potatoes. The big boys, whoever they are, have borrowed every share available. And I think I understand why. The fundamentals of this company are a disaster. Their operations are completely in the red-cutbacks in airline flights, consumers cutting their driving and vacation spending etc. Furthermore I submit their real estate arm is severely underwater. Plus they have constrution going on which I have no idea how they are going to pay for. Then we have to deal with this idiot idea that they are going buy back 3 million shares. Well, picture me this Batman-you are already 80% debt to cap and you are bleeding cash.In my opinion,book value is overstated at 20$. Finally, this stock is overly owned by institutions-approx. 60%-and it's just a matter who blinks first. When whoever it is that blinks, there will be very few bids on the downside.

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    • Have you looked at what Vail reports to the SEC, or even what is posted here on Yahoo? If you have, you would see that what you said is jibberish.

      How can you say that their operation is completely in the red? Fundamentally MTN is still a ski resort, even though they are branching out into other operations, including operations that are summer resorts.

      MTN also has over $300 million in cash on hand, and around $540 million in long-term debt. So please tell me where you get the 80% dept to cap ratio, and where they are bleeding cash? MTN always loses money during the fourth and first quarter.

      All IMHO.

      Colterbayboy

    • I tend to agree. Over the past few years I had shorted essentially from where we are now all the way up to the low 60s and was eventually able to cover at a tidy profit. On the other hand 'deepharbor' (have not seen a post from him in a bit) had it long and correct from bottom to top and I assume he also cashed out with a nice gain. I have always felt that the real estate stuff was just a distraction from the actual 'montain segment' core business which continues to show little or now growth (negative if you exclude the yearly 10% ticket price increases) and continued declines in skier visitations at the flagship properties. As with vegas they have overbuilt (and continue to do so) and are underselling. Last years weak dollar didn't do a whole lot for them (I thought it would have done more) so maybe the current stregthening dollar and weakening euro helps them this year; or not. As with the last go around, I will be aggressively shorting above 45 (if I can find shares). Also agree that spending money on a buyback is suprememly stupid.

 
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