The place is a complete ghost-town except for holiday weekends. It's kind of like Vegas. Oh, yeah, those stocks are doing pretty well. NOT. Overpaid, over-leveraged, and overweight baby boomers are out of dough. Stop drinking the kool-aid and ask the merchants in town. They'll set you straight. And it's going to get a lot worse. Heavenly and Keystone? Are you kidding me. They have to keep the chairs running and snow machines going for all 5 people skiing today!
I'm not short it yet but I will be very soon and I will double my money. Chart says the top is almost here. $27.38 max. Once this thing's momentum breaks, look out below!! You will see a couple big longs capitulate when they realize they might still be able to get out with a 2-handle.
"The place is a complete ghost-town except for holiday weekends." Have you even been skiing in Vail this winter? I work there and it is slower, but a ghost town? You're full of it. PS: I like it when it is not super crowded, and it is not now. But, and a big BUT, it is far from a ghost town.
Yes, I agree, the term "ghost town" is way overstated and unfair. But that is not the issue. The issue is valuation. After reworking numbers the concencus is about 20x this years earnings and 30x next years earnings based on the 2/21 close. If these numbers are vaguely correct, it's not to late to sell.
I'm in complete agreement here. Vail resorts is a great company and a great, but expensive experience. That is why I think this stock is way overpriced, they may have a great balance sheet, but I believe they are burning through cash every single day. Visitation is way down, just go to their sites and look at the webcams. Its a ghost town. I'm hoping this stock will go up some more so I can short it.
As the author of of both "downhill skiing" parts one and II, I obviously agree with you. I have absolutely nothing against the sport, mountain beauty, and all the fun that goes with it. This vicious deleveraging down cycle is going to take a lot of good people and good companies with it. The balance sheet is not nearly as strong as some Polyannas think (see "downhill skiing part II). I just hope this management gets honest, and the market will then find a true value. If they hem and haw and equivocate, the market will see right through it and the result will be worse than the truth. This stock in my opinion is likely a lot lower, but no one can get a handle on real value without good figures. The shareholders deserve the truth.