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Vail Resorts Inc. Message Board

  • analyst112 analyst112 Mar 12, 2009 2:10 PM Flag

    Earnings not recurring

    The $29MM profit from Real estate is a nonrecurring item. The real estate market in Vail is a disaster. They are also funding expensive hotel construction which will sit empty upon completion. What they should do is stop all capex for a couple of years while the market settles. In Vail there are units for sale everywhere at prices of $1500-$2000 per sq. ft. The real price is probably under $1000 even in Vail village. The ongoing earnings are from resort operations which will be down over 20% this coming winter. This last winter season was only down 9% because people pre-booked and pre-paid for air and hotels and could not cancel. That will be different this coming year with many more out of work and investment portfolios wiped out. $92 lift tickets are differable.

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    • Most people who invest in this stock, probably do not even know where Eagle and Summit County are located on the map. If they took one trip to see what it looks like up there these days, it would affect their decision on how to invest.

    • Yawn, stock up huge. It trades near book and the guidance already acknowledges real estate, which has been shockingly resilient over the past 12-months at Vail.

      "This last winter season was only down 9% because people pre-booked and pre-paid for air and hotels and could not cancel"

      This is total bs, everyone is booking last minute, and the company is being innovate in attracting new guests/summer stuff. Even if EBITDA is 25m lower than guidance it is still good value. Silver bullet is the well thought out b/sheet. Shorts will be covering until $25 and smart long term investors will have used the unjustified swoon to add to position, which they can trim out of leaving core position intact.

      • 1 Reply to deepvaluejpm
      • It's simple to look and say these thing like "trading at book value", but I for one don't think this is a reason for the stock to go up. If that was the case WAMU, BAC, and Enron would have been great deals.
        As far as the ski industry goes, it will be toast for a while. Ticket prices are still high at the high end resorts, discounts are still everywhere (margin squeeze), rising fix cost, real estate values at the resorts are still being marked down and visitation is still slow. My friend who works at Mammoth describes the situation as "scary".
        All this tells me that MTN is no screaming buy. I applaud Mr Katz who will forgo his salary for the year which is more than I can say for the senior management at Mammoth who only took a 5% pay cut while laying off 101 people. They are the ones who knows no shame. MTN will be in business, but it will be a while before the stock makes a brand new high.

        Happy Trading everyone

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