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Vail Resorts Inc. Message Board

  • needinfo117 needinfo117 May 16, 2012 7:59 AM Flag

    Credit swiss says vail has pricing power??

    Vail Resorts. Inc. (MTN) OUTPERFORM J. Simkins
    CP: US$ 42.39 TP: US$ 55 CAP: US$ 1.5b
    Updating Estimates Following Guidance Revision; Maintain Outperform
    􀂃 3Q Housekeeping: Given Vail's recent release of late season ski
    metrics and commentary that resort reported EBITDA
    results for fiscal 2012 would fall slightly below the low end of guidance
    issued in early March, we are tweaking our fiscal
    2012 resort EBITDA estimates to $202.9m (-$9.7m). We see MTN shares as
    attractive given the company's asset quality,
    long-term pricing power, strong balance sheet, free cash flow, and good
    management. Keep in mind that Vail is heading
    into what is typically a quiet period for shares through the summer
    months, and patient investors could be rewarded as
    interest in the stock heats up heading into the fall/winter period.
    􀂃 Pass Sales Primary Driver: Vail's recent commentary that season
    pass sales for the spring season will exceed the prior
    year sales in both units and dollars was encouraging. We highlight that
    this commentary came on May 1, with a full month
    left in the spring selling period. This suggests that Vail could handily
    exceed the prior year, which is remarkable given that
    the company was lapping 19%/27% comps through May 2011 (units/sales
    dollars), particularly following a tough snow year.
    􀂃 Catalysts: 1) Fiscal 3Q results (June 9), 2) integration of
    Kirkwood, 3) share repurchases/return of capital, 4)
    commencement of ski season (December).
    􀂃 Valuation: Our $55 target is based on 8x/11x our 2014E
    mountain/lodging EBITDA discounted back, plus 1x real estate
    book value. We are lowering 2012/2013/2014 EPS estimates to
    $0.38/$0.94/$1.18 from $0.54/$1.12/$1.37 respectively.ss

 
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