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Vail Resorts Inc. Message Board

  • skispartan skispartan Oct 8, 1998 7:51 PM Flag

    Whoa!

    Any ideas on why the huge drop? Intrawest and ASC
    also hit 52 week lows today. Vail's purchase of the
    Village at Breckenridge was an excellent move. The
    restaurants and lodging give them the opportunity to capture
    more of the skier's dollar. Meaning, if skier visits
    and spending stay the same, Vail makes more money.

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    • skihog: you seem to be fairly erudite for a ski
      instructor; congratulations on living the good life and
      knowing something about finance, or at least paying
      attention to finance. MTN is primarily a real estate play
      and that is why it, ASC and Intrawest have been
      hammered along with the fact that with the "global
      economy" melting down everywhere analysts are predicting
      gloom and doom for tourism companies. Since these
      stocks - IDR, SKI and MTN - are all real estate
      intensive, and in the case of SKI and MTN (esp. SKI) highly
      leveraged, it ain't boding well.

      Good description:
      Cocktail stock. You guys better have a good winter just to
      keep these stocks from falling further. ASC/SKI may be
      gone (or restructured dramatically) within 18 months.
      They'll probably try to pull a big hype on the upcoming
      Olympics in UT where they are agressively (some would
      argue haphazardly) developing the Canyons. Seriously,
      there will be a small rebound in these stocks in the
      next few weeks, then I predict a drop back to around
      these levels until the ski season gets well underway.
      From that point, these stocks will perform according
      to the winter. Since MTN is only in the WEST, there
      exposure is more one-dimensional. IDR and ASC/SKI have to
      worry about the EAST as well. Which can be a plus,
      obviously if the weather out west sucks (but not the east)
      or if the east and west are both good.

      rgc:
      If you have given up skiing and have never been to
      VAIL, what the hell are you doing in this stock or on
      this board? Just wonderin'

      skispartan: read the
      SKI and IDR threads as well.

      Later all. Have a
      good weekend.

      SK1BUM

      • 1 Reply to SK1_BUM
      • Um . . . read my post again. I DID go to Vail,
        along with a host
        of other resorts in CA, CO at UT
        as well as Canada. If you must know, after moving
        from the West Coast to the Mid-Atlantic, the ability
        to go on weekend ski trips has been somewhat
        limited. (Friendly) suggestion - before badgering folks
        about their posts - first, READ them
        CAREFULLY.

        Reasons (among others) for getting into MTN:

        -
        Due-diligence showed good long-term growth potential. I view
        the small cap downturn as a temporary thing. F Y I -
        take a look at Zacks research - MTN rates pretty well
        compared to the others
        in this sector.

        -
        Diversity - I wanted to get a little exposure to the
        leisure
        sector. Face it, regardless of the economy, there will
        always be
        a good number of fat cats who will be
        taking their winter jaunts
        to places like Vail. Also,
        (short term), the World Championships
        in January
        might provide a little pop to the stock.

        Pretty
        good reasons if you ask me. Hope this answers your

        questions (comments).

 
MTN
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