Wells Fargo (WFC) is my choice for buying either CBSH or UMBF. This assumes that either CBSH or UMBF want to sell out. Different branches of the Kemper Family control both banks and call the shots. I think CBSH would sell out before UMBF, but I don't think it will happen anytime soon.
Wells Fargo has a big hole in its geographic coverage in St. Louis and Kansas City. Either CBSH or UMBF would be a good fit. UMBF would command a much higher price since it is very conservative and there is greater potential to improve its lackluster operations. Now that the goodwill rules will be eliminated starting this year, I'm expecting to see a pick up of merger activity this year.
Just my thoughts...
Full Disclosure: I own both CBSH and UMBF (long positions). I do not own any WFC.
I think neither Kemper family running UMBF or CBSH will sell out soon. They both think they can go it alone. CBSH is much better managed than UMBF and I think it will continue to do well even on its own. UMBF is very intriguing since it is so poorly managed and there is such huge upside. The big negative is all the nepotism and lack of an independent board of directors looking out for all shareholders.
I still think there will be a pick up of bank acquisitions this coming year, which might boost the stock prices.