It has always been interesting to watch CBSH and the market's response to the 5% dividend. While Buyers buy 5% less book value which should translate to a 5% price decrease, the past few years history of the dividend provided somewhat mixed report which I would assume is impacted by the excitement of the market, knowledge and expertise of buyer (it sold yesterday at X, it should be worth X today (or a month ago), where in reality is should be X less dividends (stock + corresponding cash dividend). Other factors would naturally be the market momentum.
These are the historic numbers since 2000.
2000 DIVIDEND (11.28.2000)* 11.27 close price $37.06 * 11.28 close price $36.00 * 12.28 close price $42.13 *
2001 DIVIDEND (11.28.2001) * 11.27 close price $39.59 * 11.28 close price $37.74 * 12.28 close price $38.56 *
2002 DIVIDEND (11.26.2002) * 11.25 close price $42.69 * 11.26 close price $39.43 * 12.26 close price $38.82 *
2003 DIVIDEND (11.25.2003)* 11.24 close price $49.24 * 11.25 close price $47.36 * 12.24 close price $48.39 *
My guess is that the dividend will be only partially reflected in the price, especially in part due to the current market price, but will at least fully recover by the end of the year.
* source of qoutes is price history link on Yahoo.