So, in conclusion, we do not have the same set of circumstances, but there are similarities.
1) There is new basket of currencies, again threatening to replace the USD as the world's reserve currency... the Euro.
2) Iraq instead of Iran. The main grip of the Saudis is that they DO want Iraq to survive, mainly because it creates the perfect buffer between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Same religion, different sects (example: Northern Ireland; Christianity; Protestant versus Catholic). Substitute Khomeini with Hussein for the villain that might soon be on t-shirts in your neighborhood.
3) Saudi Arabia again is a key player and despite the 1980s tarnishing they suffered playing the gold-buying game... historically, gold IS the currency of exchange and not paper money. Why wouldn't they buy gold? Investing in the tech boom of the 1990s (ala Priceline, EMC, etc.) have probably turned them off to paper.
4) Despite Russia having stepped up to help buffer against any OPEC production cuts, a concerted effort by the Muslim world to turn off the spigot would result in marketplace cataclysm, if only for a few months (such as was the case in 1973-4). Invading Iraq would probably be the spark that lit that bonfire. (Follow the developments in Venezuela, which is a major US oil supplier, to appreciate how truly fragile this situation is.)
5) Instead of the Hunt brothers trying to corner and inflate the silver market, the US govt is said to become a major silver purchaser later this year and next. (The hysteria that digital cameras would eliminate the need for silver created the same profound effect on the world as Pets.com.)
6) Bush is as good a cartoon character as Carter was... only I think Carter was more intelligent (I didn't vote for Carter or Bush). So, Bush has the capability of getting into as bad a corner as Carter did. Beltway thinking went that as long as Bush had Cheney, the world would be swell.... that's getting lame with each passing week.
7) Instead of Americans being held hostage in Iran, they're being held hostage by their 401(k) plans... which has a greater impact over a larger populace. Nonetheless, I would be surprised someday should Egypt go entirely Muslim-cleric-ruled that the potential for another Iran-like hostage situation to emerge. If not Egypt, there's always Turkey, which has cozied up to Iraq through the oil-pipeline deal. Then again, Saudi Arabia is likely to move closer to the Islamic left than it has ever been as soon as the current King dies.
Looks to me like a remake of an old movie. Different cast, similar theme and plotline, and same kind of action.
and i am old enough to remember to thank people for help when i ask, but i suppose it is frustrating to see so many messages (given how many questions i ask<g>) that only say "thanks"..so apologies to all if i stop saying it<g>.
three-year cup. two-month handle's a little more eccentric than classic. xau three-year is much the same. momentum players are looking for a breakout on volume at 89.21 - if/when that occurs, then the piling-in begins. if not, then a double-bottom base...
no particular favorite. how does one guess which will be the emc or csco of this sector at this point? with the consolidation trend, who's going to end up the earnings and dividend gorilla? a known entity or a mid-level player? i suspect it'll be one few look at here - like an aauk, with global interests in metals, coal, timber and gems. gem miners have been the 2nd best performing sector. so, there's a possible one-two punch.
i've spread across eco, hl, cde, mdg, ssri, sil, aem, several others with an overweight on no. american headquarters.
SSRI in addition to PAAS. SIL is another silver producer, but I don't trade it very much. HL (Hecla) is another miner to look at as well as CDE. CDE has a lot of debt and is not as good of a play. A good gold and silver play is MDG.