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  • markbird2002 markbird2002 Aug 10, 2002 12:16 PM Flag

    Part 2/Puzzle

    So, in conclusion, we do not have the same set of circumstances, but there are similarities.

    1) There is new basket of currencies, again threatening to replace the USD as the world's reserve currency... the Euro.

    2) Iraq instead of Iran. The main grip of the Saudis is that they DO want Iraq to survive, mainly because it creates the perfect buffer between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Same religion, different sects (example: Northern Ireland; Christianity; Protestant versus Catholic). Substitute Khomeini with Hussein for the villain that might soon be on t-shirts in your neighborhood.

    3) Saudi Arabia again is a key player and despite the 1980s tarnishing they suffered playing the gold-buying game... historically, gold IS the currency of exchange and not paper money. Why wouldn't they buy gold? Investing in the tech boom of the 1990s (ala Priceline, EMC, etc.) have probably turned them off to paper.

    4) Despite Russia having stepped up to help buffer against any OPEC production cuts, a concerted effort by the Muslim world to turn off the spigot would result in marketplace cataclysm, if only for a few months (such as was the case in 1973-4). Invading Iraq would probably be the spark that lit that bonfire. (Follow the developments in Venezuela, which is a major US oil supplier, to appreciate how truly fragile this situation is.)

    5) Instead of the Hunt brothers trying to corner and inflate the silver market, the US govt is said to become a major silver purchaser later this year and next. (The hysteria that digital cameras would eliminate the need for silver created the same profound effect on the world as Pets.com.)

    6) Bush is as good a cartoon character as Carter was... only I think Carter was more intelligent (I didn't vote for Carter or Bush). So, Bush has the capability of getting into as bad a corner as Carter did. Beltway thinking went that as long as Bush had Cheney, the world would be swell.... that's getting lame with each passing week.

    7) Instead of Americans being held hostage in Iran, they're being held hostage by their 401(k) plans... which has a greater impact over a larger populace. Nonetheless, I would be surprised someday should Egypt go entirely Muslim-cleric-ruled that the potential for another Iran-like hostage situation to emerge. If not Egypt, there's always Turkey, which has cozied up to Iraq through the oil-pipeline deal. Then again, Saudi Arabia is likely to move closer to the Islamic left than it has ever been as soon as the current King dies.

    Looks to me like a remake of an old movie. Different cast, similar theme and plotline, and same kind of action.

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