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Twin Disc, Incorporated Message Board

  • biggunnz123 biggunnz123 Apr 19, 2012 3:14 PM Flag

    the facts

    Fracking slowing = twin sales slowing. I don't know if they are slowing enough to justify a 22 handle. But one fact I do know is more than a few people are selling at 22 two trading days before earnings. I can't think of a worse sign.

    Disclosure....I'm taking a beating on this stock so no one wants it to turn more than me.

    Also why do people always cling to the buyout dream? This company isn't getting buy by Cat people. Get over it.

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    • Hey Big

      Whats the worse sign that people are selling prior to earnings. Well they were basically buying prior the 4th quarter earnings and the stock took a nice ride down. So throw out that logic. Most people don't understand the company anyways. i would think a 50 percent haircut has factored in a lot of negativity. And if earnings or next quarter's forecast stinks that will probably be the bottom unless the market falls out of bed.
      a stock earning two bucks selling at basically 20 is an attractive buyout target for any company. Also, there aren't too many companies like Twin.
      Another example PLPC hit a high of 76 went down to 41 and then back up to 71 and back to 60 all on good earning reports. SO there are times with small caps that the selling gets over done on the downside and the buying on the upside. And the risk reward is surely more in your favor now than it was at 40

    • Is fracking really slowing that much, or is it simply shifting from gas to oil?

      This sell off is overdone. Of course, it's not like HAL shot off today...but it sure seems that the downside is limited @ $22

      • 1 Reply to OkieEric
      • I listened to the hal call and it sounded as if overall the number of rigs drilling on net has dropped slightly with gas drop greater than oil increase. A lot of equipment and infrastructure is in transition. This fits with what carbo prop said last qtr. Hal did speak favorable of fracking opportunities increasing in south america, poland and china. Twins global distributiona and mfg. footprint should help them. But this qtr. has to show some robust bookings. To be honest last qtr was somewhat of a dissapointment and managements explaination a little lame. They tend to play with their cards close to their chest. I have held this stock for greater than 10 years and it has done well over that time frame. But they need to show some sequential bookings improvement this qtr,. That is a must. I know I repeat myself but it can not be over emphasized.

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